State of the Nation News

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed

Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)

India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore

A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026

United States troops enter Iran

Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)

Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

Donald Trump remains President of USA

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico

Russian-Ukraine War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire

Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

Iran-Israel War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

123

A country declares war on Israel

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

Hostile military action by United States against Cuba

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

Iran loses territory

Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

Iran undergoes a regime change

Sudanese Civil War ends

Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil

Any NATO country formally declares war on another country

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths

Egypt formally declares war on another country

Israel loses territory

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

China invades Taiwan

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

Any country leaves NATO

Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor

China formally declares war on another country

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Successful military coup in Venezuela

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

United States formally declares war on another country

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

USA leaves NATO

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

United States formally declares war on Iran

Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action

Iranian troops enter Israel

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

A country declares war on United States

Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Any US territory comes under Canadian administration

Israel annexes any portion of Iran

A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.

Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

Humans will extinct

Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

YES

Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, 1953

Kim Jong Un, Supreme Leader of North Korea, 1982/1983/1984

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, 1952

Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus, 1954

Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, 1950

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Turkey, 1954

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, 1978

Donald Trump, US President, 1946

Mahmoud Abbas, President of the State of Palestine and Palestinian National Authority, 1935

Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, 1963

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, 1939

YES

YES

Bougainville

Somaliland

Biafra

Other

Kosovo

Aden (under any name such as South Yemen)

East African Federation

Palestine

Kurdistan

Taiwan

Sovereign State of the Bektashi Order

Greenland

Scotland

Catalonia

Holy See / Vatican City

Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic

A government of a major nation orders the shutdown of a significant AI service

Reports of activity on internet-connected servers

AI-related cyberattack

AI-designed cyberweapon

AI system solves major unsolved math problem

Mass AI-driven job displacement event

A government declaration/statement (any country)

Reports about software

Reports about financial activity

Report about sociological observations

Report about economic observations

AI-related academic achievement

Attack on military target

Attack on civilian target

AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat

Major AI safety incident or accident

A statement from an individual (human)

AI-related fake news

AI-related political movement (pro or anti)

A private company declaration/statement (any company)

Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)

Military activity / posture change

An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target

AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event

An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event

AI makes prediction about future event

Open source model release

Release of a closed-source/closed-weights model

Reports of aerial devices/machines

Reports of market activity

AI-related corruption scandal

AI-related theft

A new war between nation states

AI-related resignation

Reports of activity in online communities

Reports of activity in open source software

A declaration/statement from a military / intelligence agency

Reports of activity on internet media distribution platforms

People receiving messages (text / phone calls / whatsapp / ...)

AI-related diplomacy

Reports about consumer activity

Reports about identity theft

Reports of activity in religious communities

AI-related media (movie/song/book ...)

Reports about industrial activity

Reports about physical machines

Reports about criminal activity

AI-related competition achievement

A viral meme

An announcement from an AI lab similar to o3

AI-related Internet shutdown in some country

Conventional weapons attack on AI infrastructure / supply chain

A declaration/statement from an AI (any AI)

AI-related sex scandal

A piece of viral AI-generated media that has a strong/unexpected effect on large numbers of people (~psychological)

AI parasitism / Addictive-Persuasive Agent

Attack on Taiwan

AI-related terrorist attack

AI-related assassination

AI-designed pathogen

AI drug discovery

AI material discovery

Death of an individual in suspicious circumstances

AI-related astronomical event / observation / analysis (can also include satellites)

Reports of underwater activity

Reports of activity on blockchain networks

Reports of activity in academic communities

Publication of a research paper (or pre-print / blog post / poster / twitter thread / ... -- about research-related topic)

Reports of activity in online video games

Reports about people getting scammed

AI-related cult

AI system demonstrates general robotic control

AI causes significant stock market event

Major AGI lab whistleblower revelation

AI-related archaeology

AI system makes scientific breakthrough

An AI lab demonstrates an automated AI research engineer

NO

Because a human directed it to do so

an open source model

A proprietary model

A rogue AI agent acting autonomously

A cyber-physical system malfunction

Military system error

A combination of multiple models

Source unknown/untraceable

Financial system collapse

an openAI model

Biological agent synthesis/release

Due to poor resource allocation (i.e. the AI is responsible for, and fails to continue medicine/food/water stability to a place where human decisionmaking previously successfully did)

A Google model

an Anthropic model

Infrastructure/power grid failure

Accidental release of research code

A nation-state model

Automated social manipulation/misinformation

A Meta model

YES

Weakened Democracy (Failed Authoritarianism)

Full Democratic Restoration

Hybrid Authoritarianism (Turkey)

Full Authoritarianism (Russia/NK)

NO