State of the Nation News

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

Donald Trump remains President of USA

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Sudanese Civil War ends

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Any country leaves NATO

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

China invades Taiwan

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

USA leaves NATO

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

YES

YES

Kim Jong Un, Supreme Leader of North Korea, 1982/1983/1984

Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, 1953

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, 1952

Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus, 1954

Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, 1950

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Turkey, 1954

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, 1978

Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela, 1962

Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, 1963

Mahmoud Abbas, President of the State of Palestine and Palestinian National Authority, 1935

Donald Trump, US President, 1946

YES

Bougainville

Other

Somaliland

Kosovo

Sovereign State of the Bektashi Order

Kurdistan

East African Federation

Palestine

Taiwan

Greenland

Scotland

Catalonia

Holy See / Vatican City

Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic

Mass AI-driven job displacement event

A government declaration/statement (any country)

Reports about software

Reports about financial activity

Report about sociological observations

Report about economic observations

AI-related academic achievement

Attack on military target

Attack on civilian target

AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat

A statement from an individual (human)

AI-related fake news

AI-related political movement (pro or anti)

A private company declaration/statement (any company)

Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)

Military activity / posture change

An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target

AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event

An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event

A government of a major nation orders the shutdown of a significant AI service

AI-designed cyberweapon

A declaration/statement from an AI (any AI)

AI-related sex scandal

AI makes prediction about future event

Open source model release

Release of a closed-source/closed-weights model

Reports of aerial devices/machines

Reports of market activity

AI-related corruption scandal

AI-related theft

A new war between nation states

AI-related resignation

Reports of activity on blockchain networks

Reports of activity in online communities

Reports of activity on internet-connected servers

Reports of activity in open source software

A declaration/statement from a military / intelligence agency

Reports of activity on internet media distribution platforms

Publication of a research paper (or pre-print / blog post / poster / twitter thread / ... -- about research-related topic)

People receiving messages (text / phone calls / whatsapp / ...)

AI-related diplomacy

Reports about consumer activity

Reports about people getting scammed

Reports about identity theft

Reports of activity in religious communities

AI-related media (movie/song/book ...)

Reports about industrial activity

Reports about physical machines

Reports about criminal activity

AI-related competition achievement

A viral meme

An announcement from an AI lab similar to o3

AI-related Internet shutdown in some country

AI-related cyberattack

Conventional weapons attack on AI infrastructure / supply chain

A piece of viral AI-generated media that has a strong/unexpected effect on large numbers of people (~psychological)

AI parasitism / Addictive-Persuasive Agent

Attack on Taiwan

AI-related terrorist attack

AI-related assassination

AI-designed pathogen

AI drug discovery

AI material discovery

Death of an individual in suspicious circumstances

AI-related astronomical event / observation / analysis (can also include satellites)

Reports of underwater activity

Reports of activity in academic communities

Reports of activity in online video games

AI-related cult

AI system demonstrates general robotic control

AI causes significant stock market event

Major AGI lab whistleblower revelation

AI-related archaeology

Major AI safety incident or accident

AI system makes scientific breakthrough

AI system solves major unsolved math problem

An AI lab demonstrates an automated AI research engineer

NO

Other

Macron & Mistral

Netanyahu & GPT

Trump & Grok

Kim Jong Un & Grok

Zelensky & Claude

Trump & GPT

Biden & Claude

Biden & Gemini

Putin & Yandex GPT

Xi Jinping & Ernie Bot

Modi & GPT

YES

NO

Weakened Democracy (Failed Authoritarianism)

Full Democratic Restoration

Hybrid Authoritarianism (Turkey)

Full Authoritarianism (Russia/NK)