State of the Union News

Pence Urges Trump to Hit Russia With Secondary Sanctions After Alaska Summit

1 year ago

What will Trump do during his second term (2025–2029)?

Jan 22, 7:24 AMJan 24, 6:46 PM

26152774

OptionProbability

Post a Tweet

Deny Climate Change

Promote the product of a supporter from the Oval Office

Withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement

Bomb Iran

Increase US oil production

Pardon a person convicted of a violent crime against police (e.g. January 6 insurrectionists)

Appoint a federal judge who is rated NQ (Not Qualified) by the American Bar Association

Enrich himself & his family financially

Shake hands with Putin

Call a national emergency for a non-foreign affairs issue

Post on Social Media that the DOJ should investigate somebody who is subsequently investigated by the DOJ

Reverse Biden's executive order on AI

Start a war

Play golf

Visit a golf course more than 10% of the days he spends in office

Shake hands with Xi Jinping

Have to have the VP (or someone else) be acting president for any amount of time

Exercise

Detain large numbers of legal immigrants as part of a program ostensibly targeting illegal immigrants

Attend at least one current state leader funeral

Fire someone he nominated to a government position via social media (“fired by tweet”)

Threaten a world leader with nuclear attack

Sign bills with a Sharpie or similar

Question the effectiveness or safety of vaccines in general

Appoint a Justice to the Supreme Court

Suggest his face should be added to mount rushmore

Visit a golf course more than 20% of the days he spends in office

Comment Publicly on the Investment Merits of DJT Stock

Get impeached

Authorize or explicitly endorse violence against peaceful protesters

Suppress, censor, or shut down any US news media outlet (including websites)

Shake hands with Donald Tusk

Pardon himself

Have a net approval below -20% at any point

Withdraw support for Ukraine

Suggests in a speech or verified written format that Cuba join as a state

Pardon someone with the last name Trump (excluding himself)

Trumped-Up Charges: Trump appoints an Attorney General whose office goes on to seek a criminal indictment against ex-President Joseph Biden.

Leave office early

Advocate or support a genocide (anywhere in the world)

Attempt to stay in power for a third term

Order the US military to attack US citizens on US soil

End SBA direct lending

Use the powers of his office to hurt Elon Musk's competitors

Reference "Situational Awareness"

Be the subject of a successful invocation of the 25th amendment

Eat a hamnhrb

Pass away

Attempt or claim to seize direct military control of DC via the Insurrection Act, martial law, or similar

Pardon SBF

Make America Great Again

Die

Order a nuclear strike

Declassify the existence of non human intelligence.

Instruct the military to fire on protesters with live bullets, leading to at least one death

Talk with Kim Jong Un face to face

Make an executive order with the stated intention of slowing down AI development

Order the extrajudicial killing of a (named) US citizen on US soil

Eliminate Daylight Savings Time

Initiate tariffs that would apply to GPUs from Taiwan

Ban TikTok

Withdraw the US from NATO

Signs a bill that admits a new state to the Union.

Order the extrajudicial killing of any federal or state elected official

Completely withdraw United States Forces Korea

Cry on camera

Here's Johnny: Trump again appoints John Bolton to an official position in his administration.

Be in some type of official captivity at any level before the end of the planned term in 2029

Have over +20 net approval according to 538, at any point

Direct the killing of a political opponent

Be removed via the 25th Amendment

Do another Home Alone cameo

Buy Greenland

Sign a bill into law on day one

100

Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

Jul 3, 3:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.3%chance

1614186

OptionVotes

YES

11095

8929

As of November 2028, will any of the current 50 US states attempt to secede from the Union.

Dec 28, 1:16 PMNov 1, 10:59 AM

15.15%chance

263216

OptionVotes

YES

1203

942

Will there be a state introduced or removed from the union by 2030?

Jan 12, 9:46 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

13.54%chance

302442

OptionVotes

YES

1939

741

🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028?

Apr 6, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.2%chance

71181

OptionVotes

YES

145

Will Italy be a member state of the European Union by the start of 2030?

Dec 16, 8:13 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

91.43%chance

15609

OptionVotes

YES

1343

938

Will a majority of Democratic Congresspeople boycott any of Trump’s State of the Union addresses?

Mar 27, 4:46 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

30.56%chance

10517

OptionVotes

YES

1507

663

Paired Market: In what way will Puerto Rico no longer be a US Territory?

Aug 5, 5:48 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9339

OptionProbability

A State in the Union

Independent Country with Compact of Free Association (a la Federated States of Micronesia)

Fully Independent Country

United States dissolves (or similar)

Which member state of the European Union will be the first to achieve a life expectancy of 90 at birth for females?

Apr 15, 3:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5298

OptionProbability

Italy

Luxembourg

Spain

France

Sweden

Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?

Jun 30, 1:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46%chance

16284

OptionVotes

YES

1036

965

By the end of 2027 will there be a new state or a new union territory in the Republic of India?

Aug 8, 8:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.49%chance

7153

OptionVotes

YES

170

135

Will the next state to be added to the Union include territories of 2023's the District of Columbia?

Apr 8, 4:56 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

37.51%chance

324

OptionVotes

YES

108

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What will Trump do during his second term (2025–2029)?

Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

As of November 2028, will any of the current 50 US states attempt to secede from the Union.

Will there be a state introduced or removed from the union by 2030?

🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028?

Will Italy be a member state of the European Union by the start of 2030?

Will a majority of Democratic Congresspeople boycott any of Trump’s State of the Union addresses?

Paired Market: In what way will Puerto Rico no longer be a US Territory?

Which member state of the European Union will be the first to achieve a life expectancy of 90 at birth for females?

Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?

By the end of 2027 will there be a new state or a new union territory in the Republic of India?

Will the next state to be added to the Union include territories of 2023's the District of Columbia?

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