State of the Union News

Pence Urges Trump to Hit Russia With Secondary Sanctions After Alaska Summit

7 months ago

What will Trump do during his second term (2025–2029)?

Jan 22, 7:24 AMJan 24, 6:46 PM

24244548

OptionProbability

Post a Tweet

Withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement

Bomb Iran

Pardon a person convicted of a violent crime against police (e.g. January 6 insurrectionists)

Enrich himself & his family financially

Shake hands with Putin

Reverse Biden's executive order on AI

Play golf

Shake hands with Xi Jinping

Deny Climate Change

Visit a golf course more than 10% of the days he spends in office

Promote the product of a supporter from the Oval Office

Increase US oil production

Have to have the VP (or someone else) be acting president for any amount of time

Fire someone he nominated to a government position via social media (“fired by tweet”)

Call a national emergency for a non-foreign affairs issue

Post on Social Media that the DOJ should investigate somebody who is subsequently investigated by the DOJ

Appoint a Justice to the Supreme Court

Attend at least one current state leader funeral

Question the effectiveness or safety of vaccines in general

Sign bills with a Sharpie or similar

Threaten a world leader with nuclear attack

Shake hands with Donald Tusk

Detain large numbers of legal immigrants as part of a program ostensibly targeting illegal immigrants

Comment Publicly on the Investment Merits of DJT Stock

Exercise

Pardon someone with the last name Trump (excluding himself)

Withdraw support for Ukraine

Visit a golf course more than 20% of the days he spends in office

Authorize or explicitly endorse violence against peaceful protesters

Suppress, censor, or shut down any US news media outlet (including websites)

Get impeached

Suggest his face should be added to mount rushmore

Have a net approval below -20% at any point

Appoint a federal judge who is rated NQ (Not Qualified) by the American Bar Association

Pardon himself

Suggests in a speech or verified written format that Cuba join as a state

Eliminate Daylight Savings Time

Start a war

Trumped-Up Charges: Trump appoints an Attorney General whose office goes on to seek a criminal indictment against ex-President Joseph Biden.

Be the subject of a successful invocation of the 25th amendment

Reference "Situational Awareness"

Leave office early

Advocate or support a genocide (anywhere in the world)

Order the US military to attack US citizens on US soil

End SBA direct lending

Initiate tariffs that would apply to GPUs from Taiwan

Use the powers of his office to hurt Elon Musk's competitors

Eat a hamnhrb

Pass away

Die

Order the extrajudicial killing of a (named) US citizen on US soil

Pardon SBF

Attempt to stay in power for a third term

Make America Great Again

Talk with Kim Jong Un face to face

Declassify the existence of non human intelligence.

Instruct the military to fire on protesters with live bullets, leading to at least one death

Make an executive order with the stated intention of slowing down AI development

Signs a bill that admits a new state to the Union.

Ban TikTok

Withdraw the US from NATO

Here's Johnny: Trump again appoints John Bolton to an official position in his administration.

Order the extrajudicial killing of any federal or state elected official

Completely withdraw United States Forces Korea

Cry on camera

Be in some type of official captivity at any level before the end of the planned term in 2029

Have over +20 net approval according to 538, at any point

Direct the killing of a political opponent

Order a nuclear strike

Be removed via the 25th Amendment

Do another Home Alone cameo

Buy Greenland

Sign a bill into law on day one

100

Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

Jul 3, 3:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.06%chance

1514136

OptionVotes

YES

11045

8973

As of November 2028, will any of the current 50 US states attempt to secede from the Union.

Dec 28, 1:16 PMNov 1, 10:59 AM

15.55%chance

253186

OptionVotes

YES

1173

947

Will there be a state introduced or removed from the union by 2030?

Jan 12, 9:46 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

15.78%chance

281912

OptionVotes

YES

1708

781

Will Italy be a member state of the European Union by the start of 2030?

Dec 16, 8:13 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

91.09%chance

14559

OptionVotes

YES

1293

943

Will a majority of Democratic Congresspeople boycott any of Trump’s State of the Union addresses?

Mar 27, 4:46 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

30.56%chance

10517

OptionVotes

YES

1507

663

Paired Market: In what way will Puerto Rico no longer be a US Territory?

Aug 5, 5:48 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9339

OptionProbability

A State in the Union

Independent Country with Compact of Free Association (a la Federated States of Micronesia)

Fully Independent Country

United States dissolves (or similar)

Which member state of the European Union will be the first to achieve a life expectancy of 90 at birth for females?

Apr 15, 3:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5298

OptionProbability

Italy

Luxembourg

Spain

France

Sweden

Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?

Jun 30, 1:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46%chance

16284

OptionVotes

YES

1036

965

Will a European Union member boycott the United States portion of the 2026 World Cup?

Jan 14, 9:58 PMJul 20, 11:59 PM

19.46%chance

8267

OptionVotes

YES

105

By the end of 2027 will there be a new state or a new union territory in the Republic of India?

Aug 8, 8:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.49%chance

7153

OptionVotes

YES

170

135

Will the next state to be added to the Union include territories of 2023's the District of Columbia?

Apr 8, 4:56 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

37.51%chance

324

OptionVotes

YES

108

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What will Trump do during his second term (2025–2029)?

Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

As of November 2028, will any of the current 50 US states attempt to secede from the Union.

Will there be a state introduced or removed from the union by 2030?

Will Italy be a member state of the European Union by the start of 2030?

Will a majority of Democratic Congresspeople boycott any of Trump’s State of the Union addresses?

Paired Market: In what way will Puerto Rico no longer be a US Territory?

Which member state of the European Union will be the first to achieve a life expectancy of 90 at birth for females?

Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?

Will a European Union member boycott the United States portion of the 2026 World Cup?

By the end of 2027 will there be a new state or a new union territory in the Republic of India?

Will the next state to be added to the Union include territories of 2023's the District of Columbia?

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