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Prediction markets for State Space Models

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.58%chance

193559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2640

380

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

163510

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

57

39

Will we get rational reinforcement learning before 2027?

May 11, 6:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

35.55%chance

121107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

746

Will the first AGI be a transformer model?

Jan 1, 4:54 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

44%chance

14952

OptionVotes

NO

YES

682

441

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.93%chance

23884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

495

Will OpenAI pause capabilities R&D voluntarily before 2027?

Apr 22, 11:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.23%chance

17727

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1763

1040

Will an LLM Built on a State Space Model Architecture Have Been SOTA at any Point before EOY 2027? [READ DESCRIPTION]

Dec 25, 1:31 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

38.74%chance

15602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1457

709

Will transformer architectures lose their dominant position in deep learning before 2028?

Jan 20, 9:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.84%chance

6155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

42

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

49

39

[Carlini questions] Will we still use (slight modifications of) transformer-based LLMs we currently use

Mar 24, 2:17 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7109

OptionProbability

On Jan 1st 2027

On Jan 1st 2030

82

54

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