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Prediction markets for State Space Models

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.9%chance

316987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4412

227

Will OpenAI pause capabilities R&D voluntarily before 2027?

Apr 22, 11:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.66%chance

181453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2337

967

Will the first AGI be a transformer model?

Jan 1, 4:54 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

67.57%chance

151249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

947

231

Will we get rational reinforcement learning before 2027?

May 11, 6:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

35.55%chance

121107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

746

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.93%chance

23884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

495

Will an LLM Built on a State Space Model Architecture Have Been SOTA at any Point before EOY 2027? [READ DESCRIPTION]

Dec 25, 1:31 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

38.74%chance

15602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1457

709

Will an AI model generate a major novel physics theory that is experimentally confirmed by the end of 2037?

Sep 9, 11:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.08%chance

2350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1350

67

Will transformer architectures lose their dominant position in deep learning before 2028?

Jan 20, 9:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.84%chance

6155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

42

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

49

39

[Carlini questions] Will we still use (slight modifications of) transformer-based LLMs we currently use

Mar 24, 2:17 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7109

OptionProbability

On Jan 1st 2027

On Jan 1st 2030

82

54

Cosmic dipole anomaly reportedly confirmed at 5-sigma by Euclid data by EOY 2030?

Aug 21, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.02%chance

326

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

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