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Prediction markets for State Street

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

1.83%chance

9534412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7356

561

Will J.D. Vance publicly criticize the decision to attack Iran before 2029?

Mar 5, 4:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.66%chance

249456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

97

Will xAI replace Anthropic's DoW deal?

Feb 26, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.61%chance

285349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2902

345

Will someone I've met be elected President in either 2028 or 2032?

Jan 28, 4:09 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

61.68%chance

492390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5270

1565

Will intersections where self-driving cars can ignore traffic signals exist in the US by end of 2030?

Jun 29, 6:09 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.28%chance

231399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1997

812

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

18.66%chance

26756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

48

First event in new White House ballroom?

Oct 26, 4:40 PMFeb 1, 5:35 PM

13601

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2029

Before July 2028

Before Jan 2028

Before July 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

65

49

41

28

6

1

Will any country besides Brazil provide subsidized elective plastic surgery before 2033?

Oct 6, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.49%chance

9180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

281

99

Will any major US airlines allow one free checked bag domestically by 2030?

Apr 25, 1:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.75%chance

7139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

75

Will anyone be prosecuted for the murder of Alex Pretti by the end of 2027?

Feb 23, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.71%chance

370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

Will Israel hand over Hamas-free parts of Gaza to Trump's ISF?

Oct 20, 12:40 AMOct 7, 7:02 PM

51%chance

453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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