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Prediction markets for Statement Edition

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Jan 10, 7:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.79%chance

480180740

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6142

836

If Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?

Jan 24, 4:35 AMNov 8, 6:32 AM

32.18%chance

354169247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1623

1432

Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?

Oct 29, 4:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.4%chance

20138166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1445

639

Will audio recordings of FDIC malfeasance vis crypto be confirmed?

Jan 12, 9:50 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13.19%chance

5529670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24349

5000

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45.56%chance

8517148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2279

1711

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support breastfeeding promotion before 2027?

Aug 23, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.72%chance

738464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7531

3749

Will Russia win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Jan 22, 10:36 AMFeb 1, 9:59 PM

59.63%chance

373252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

By 2030, will gene editing to cure serious genetic diseases be seen as generally uncontroversial?

Dec 23, 2:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.65%chance

463124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

720

Will we see a POTUS wielding a chainsaw over his head before EOY 2050?

Feb 18, 8:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

20.35%chance

401314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1338

880

Roman Catholic Church decides damnation is not eternal (market ends 2040)

Jul 29, 11:39 PMAug 6, 3:59 AM

31.96%chance

11708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1459

685

Iranian fuel & gunpowder factory explosions caused by foreign actors?

Apr 29, 4:29 PMDec 31, 5:07 PM

21.44%chance

7135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

52

Will the FIFA Club World Cup be expanded to 48 participants for its 2029 edition?

Jul 7, 10:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.6%chance

498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

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