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Statement of Administration Policy News

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Prediction markets for Statement of Administration Policy

Will J.D. Vance publicly criticize the decision to attack Iran before 2029?

Mar 5, 4:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.66%chance

249456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

97

Will SpaceX be nationalized during Trump's second term?

Jun 5, 9:53 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

6.38%chance

223566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3830

261

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.17%chance

191156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

933

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Trump will announce tariffs on a European country to pay towards the Iran war by end of Jun 2026

Apr 1, 4:36 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

7%chance

21736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

364

27

Will Israel annex at least 15% of Syria by 2029?

Jan 20, 7:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.92%chance

9231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

319

31

Will Trump publicly disparage Chief Justice John Roberts during his second term?

Feb 27, 6:44 PMJan 21, 3:59 AM

81.81%chance

9199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

212

47

Will Pope Leo criticize JD Vance by name before the 2028 election?

Feb 23, 8:02 AMNov 6, 11:59 PM

50%chance

7122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will alcohol be banned in Syria by the end of 2026?

Jan 20, 1:50 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

43.7%chance

884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

91

Federal Reserve announces wholesale CBDC pilot before 2028?

Jun 10, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Whom of his own (individuals belonging to group) will Trump get rid of related to Venezuela (during term)? (add)

Jan 4, 7:17 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Combatant commanders/Joint Chiefs

Cabinet member

50

47

US-China Track 1 AI dialogue commits to shared AI safety benchmark by '27?

Apr 14, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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