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Statement of Administration Policy News

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Prediction markets for Statement of Administration Policy

Will J.D. Vance publicly criticize the decision to attack Iran before 2029?

Mar 5, 4:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.26%chance

239261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

71

Will SpaceX be nationalized during Trump's second term?

Jun 5, 9:53 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

6.38%chance

223566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3830

261

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.73%chance

181092

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1064

940

Will JD Vance say something negative about Pope Leo XIV before May 8 2026?

May 9, 2:11 AMMay 7, 11:59 PM

22.53%chance

31678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

54

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

Will Israel annex at least 15% of Syria by 2029?

Jan 20, 7:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.92%chance

9231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

319

31

Will Trump publicly disparage Chief Justice John Roberts during his second term?

Feb 27, 6:44 PMJan 21, 3:59 AM

81.81%chance

9199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

212

47

Will the H-1B visa cap increase by at least 50% or be removed before Fiscal Year 2027?

Jun 17, 10:04 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

13.59%chance

7130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

470

335

Will Pope Leo criticize JD Vance by name before the 2028 election?

Feb 23, 8:02 AMNov 6, 11:59 PM

48%chance

5106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

Will alcohol be banned in Syria by the end of 2026?

Jan 20, 1:50 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

39.76%chance

771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

100

Federal Reserve announces wholesale CBDC pilot before 2028?

Jun 10, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Whom of his own (individuals belonging to group) will Trump get rid of related to Venezuela (during term)? (add)

Jan 4, 7:17 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Combatant commanders/Joint Chiefs

Cabinet member

50

47

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