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Prediction markets for Statement of Objections

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

226519

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

Before 2026

68

8

7

7

7

0

Will America invade Turkey in the next 20 years

Mar 1, 12:54 AMMar 1, 12:53 AM

4.31%chance

64243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4712

212

If Trump wins in 2024, will Trump supporters not "have to worry about voting anymore"?

Jul 30, 10:05 PMNov 8, 6:59 AM

9.26%chance

354175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3130

319

Will Wolfram Research create a general AI based on replacement rules logic by 2030?

May 3, 8:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7%chance

383221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1839

817

Trump vetoes Epstein files bill during second term?

Nov 16, 1:24 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

11.28%chance

342792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

280

36

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.9%chance

241876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4120

3063

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Mar 12, 3:08 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

181345

OptionProbability

Deal with minimal concessions

Unyielding Islamic Regime

Deal with major concessions

Balkanization/long civil war

Military coup (Artesh)

Popular takeover

Venezuela-style puppet state

Voluntary transition of power

43

36

8

6

3

3

1

1

OpenAI PBC released from nonprofit control by end 2027

Oct 30, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.4%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1288

776

Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?

Feb 5, 2:40 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

34.43%chance

14318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

903

Who will Ron Desantis endorse in the 2026 Republican primary for Florida governor?

Dec 4, 6:50 PMAug 1, 12:59 AM

6267

OptionProbability

Byron donalds

No endorsement made

Jay collins

Casey Desantis

Other

James fishback

46

28

10

9

4

3

Will a significant man-made object (>100kg) re-enter Earth's atmosphere and cause property damage before 2030?

Apr 17, 8:44 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

37.23%chance

11206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

What format will 'Jet Lag: The Game - Season Nineteen' take? (Read Description)

May 7, 3:07 AMJun 7, 3:07 AM

00

OptionProbability

Chase

Object Capture

Race

Territory Capture

Hide and Seek

Line Drawing

New

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

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