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Prediction markets for Statement of Objections

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not

Jan 6, 1:02 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

374318

OptionProbability

1/1/2027 - 12/31/2028

Never or on/after 1/1/2029

1/1/2025 - 12/31/2026

Before 2025

52

42

5

1

If Trump wins in 2024, will Trump supporters not "have to worry about voting anymore"?

Jul 30, 10:05 PMNov 8, 6:59 AM

9.26%chance

354175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3130

319

Will Wolfram Research create a general AI based on replacement rules logic by 2030?

May 3, 8:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7%chance

383221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1839

817

Space agency announces mission to divert asteroid 2024 YR4 before 22 Dec 2032

Jan 29, 3:06 AMDec 22, 12:00 AM

1%chance

171966

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.8%chance

241865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4131

3056

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

151510

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

Before 2026

37

18

18

16

11

8

When will the EU Commission's investigation into Google's AdTech business end?

Jul 28, 11:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3369

OptionProbability

2027/2028

2025/2026

2029/2030

After 2030

2023/2024

33

27

24

16

1

Trade war won by USA?

Mar 4, 6:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11364

OptionProbability

NO

YES

80

20

Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?

Feb 5, 2:40 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

34.43%chance

14318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

903

Will a significant man-made object (>100kg) re-enter Earth's atmosphere and cause property damage before 2030?

Apr 17, 8:44 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

37.23%chance

11206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

What are Donald Trumps real goals in relation with Greenland?

May 13, 8:17 PMDec 31, 9:16 PM

9180

OptionProbability

Ensure future safety of arctic shipping lines

Mining for Rare earths, ores or coal

Server farms and data centers (such as for AI)

Expansion of military bases (also in accordance with european goals)

52. State of America (or 51. if Canada successfully rejects)

Olympic Winter Games

73

60

59

43

24

17

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