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Prediction markets for Statement of Objections

If Trump wins in 2024, will Trump supporters not "have to worry about voting anymore"?

Jul 30, 10:05 PMNov 8, 6:59 AM

9.26%chance

354175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3130

319

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

183986

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

Before 2026

66

7

7

5

5

3

Will Wolfram Research create a general AI based on replacement rules logic by 2030?

May 3, 8:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7%chance

383221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1839

817

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.8%chance

241865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4131

3056

Will 5 Republican members of Congress call for Trump to resign before the end of 2026?

Sep 2, 10:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

14924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

436

23

OpenAI PBC released from nonprofit control by end 2027

Oct 30, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.04%chance

5596

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1426

701

Did Olivia Nuzzi cheat with RFK Jr?

Nov 28, 3:12 AMJan 1, 3:08 AM

70.74%chance

3555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1555

643

When will the EU Commission's investigation into Google's AdTech business end?

Jul 28, 11:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3369

OptionProbability

2027/2028

2025/2026

2029/2030

After 2030

2023/2024

33

27

24

16

1

Trade war won by USA?

Mar 4, 6:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11364

OptionProbability

NO

YES

86

14

Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?

Feb 5, 2:40 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

34.43%chance

14318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

903

First fully successful Starship v3 flight?

Nov 23, 1:14 AMNov 23, 1:05 AM

10191

OptionProbability

Flight 13

Flight 14

Flight 12

Other

Flight 15

48

17

13

12

10

Did The Joe Biden Auto-Pen Sign Doom?

Oct 11, 7:41 PMDec 31, 8:19 PM

56.96%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

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