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Statement of Objections News

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Prediction markets for Statement of Objections

Will J.D. Vance publicly criticize the decision to attack Iran before 2029?

Mar 5, 4:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.66%chance

249456

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

97

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

268742

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

Before 2026

84

8

8

7

4

0

Will America invade Turkey in the next 20 years

Mar 1, 12:54 AMMar 1, 12:53 AM

5.84%chance

114511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4016

249

If Trump wins in 2024, will Trump supporters not "have to worry about voting anymore"?

Jul 30, 10:05 PMNov 8, 6:59 AM

9.26%chance

354175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3130

319

Will Wolfram Research create a general AI based on replacement rules logic by 2030?

May 3, 8:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7%chance

383221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1839

817

Trump vetoes Epstein files bill during second term?

Nov 16, 1:24 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

11.28%chance

342792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

280

36

Space agency announces mission to divert asteroid 2024 YR4 before 22 Dec 2032

Jan 29, 3:06 AMDec 22, 12:00 AM

1%chance

171966

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.9%chance

241876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4120

3063

Will China claim to have discovered life on Mars before 2035?

Feb 16, 12:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

151194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

OpenAI PBC released from nonprofit control by end 2027

Oct 30, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.4%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1288

776

Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?

Feb 5, 2:40 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

37.89%chance

15368

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

815

Will a Millennium Prize Problem resolution be published before 2028 and subsequently verified?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

40.67%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

984

959

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