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Prediction markets for Stay

Will Ukrainians who came to USA under the U4U program be allowed to legally stay for 5+ years?

Jul 29, 11:12 PMMar 16, 6:59 AM

52.37%chance

513895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

839

Will Xi stay on power by the end of 2030?

Nov 3, 12:54 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

57%chance

222264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

994

Will I stay in masters this season?

Sep 1, 8:16 PMOct 1, 6:59 AM

83.35%chance

131980

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2238

447

Will the Pokemon Pombon (Pomuken) stay on all fours throughout its entire evolutionary line?

Feb 27, 5:39 PMDec 11, 5:27 PM

48%chance

161898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

Will Poland stay a member of the European Union in 2030?

Oct 12, 9:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

95.97%chance

161774

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2511

860

The context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026

Jan 2, 7:37 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

81.04%chance

51125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2067

484

Will the Chinese communist party stay in power till 2033?

Sep 19, 7:44 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

80.64%chance

201071

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

721

Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term?

Apr 6, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

16481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Google stays in the top 10 mkr cap companies through mid 2029 if and only if it has a layoff of at least 20%

Aug 24, 1:11 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

33.82%chance

5402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1399

715

This market stays open forever.

Aug 12, 10:36 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

72.27%chance

7351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161

62

Will "Love stays loved (formerly "Skin")" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 19, 9:04 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

23.91%chance

3126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1096

568

In what field will Kongo find a job he will want to stay?

Apr 26, 7:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

215

OptionProbability

Programming/gamedesign

Math/research/science

Entertainment

Engineering/electrotech

Other

66

52

52

48

46

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