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Prediction markets for Stay

How many consecutive weeks will "KPop Demon Hunters" stay in the Netflix Top 10?

Sep 4, 10:22 PMMar 11, 10:18 PM

6444544

OptionProbability

Other

22-23

32

38

39

40

<13

14-15

16-17

18-19

20-21

24-25

26

27

28

29

30

31

33

34

35

36

37

93

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

If Trump becomes President, will gas prices stay under four dollars a gallon until the midterms?

Mar 2, 5:23 AMNov 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

18331533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1725

661

Will Ukrainians who came to USA under the U4U program be allowed to legally stay for 5+ years?

Jul 29, 11:12 PMMar 16, 6:59 AM

52.24%chance

493886

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1102

836

Will Xi stay on power by the end of 2030?

Nov 3, 12:54 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

58.47%chance

182150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

969

Will Poland stay a member of the European Union in 2030?

Oct 12, 9:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

95.88%chance

151724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2461

862

The context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026

Jan 2, 7:37 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

80.27%chance

41075

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2017

496

Will the Chinese communist party stay in power till 2033?

Sep 19, 7:44 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

76.25%chance

19744

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

577

Google stays in the top 10 mkr cap companies through mid 2029 if and only if it has a layoff of at least 20%

Aug 24, 1:11 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

41.03%chance

4202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

834

Will "Love stays loved (formerly "Skin")" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 19, 9:04 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

23.91%chance

3126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1096

568

Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election?

Feb 2, 7:33 PMOct 4, 11:59 PM

264

OptionProbability

Datafolha

Ipec

Quaest

Atlas Intel

Ipespe

Paraná Pesquisas

PoderData

35

35

35

35

35

35

34

Will Fundamental Development Gap Map stay relevant and updated by 2027?

Apr 20, 4:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.41%chance

27

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

Which FBS Independent Coaches will stay with their program through the 2026 season?

Jan 15, 5:44 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

17

OptionProbability

Jason Candle

Marcus Freeman

52

45

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