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Prediction markets for Stay

If Trump becomes President, will gas prices stay under four dollars a gallon until the midterms?

Mar 2, 5:23 AMNov 2, 7:59 AM

11.16%chance

29272886

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2723

252

Will Ukrainians who came to USA under the U4U program be allowed to legally stay for 5+ years?

Jul 29, 11:12 PMMar 16, 6:59 AM

52.24%chance

493886

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1102

836

Will Xi stay on power by the end of 2030?

Nov 3, 12:54 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

55.6%chance

192200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

964

Will Poland stay a member of the European Union in 2030?

Oct 12, 9:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

95.97%chance

161774

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2511

860

Will Wrexham stay in the championship?

Jun 13, 11:34 PMMay 31, 11:33 PM

87%chance

121747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

259

39

The context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026

Jan 2, 7:37 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

80.27%chance

41075

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2017

496

Will the Chinese communist party stay in power till 2033?

Sep 19, 7:44 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

83.03%chance

20994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

828

When will the Yudkowsky $150,000 UFO market first stay at ≥95% for a week?

Jan 4, 10:25 PMJul 20, 4:59 AM

9568

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2026

2025

Never/later

39

33

20

4

4

If I stay as a Finance Major, will I regret it in May 2027?

Feb 26, 7:48 AMMay 26, 6:04 AM

44.24%chance

7352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

891

Google stays in the top 10 mkr cap companies through mid 2029 if and only if it has a layoff of at least 20%

Aug 24, 1:11 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

41.03%chance

4202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

834

Will "Love stays loved (formerly "Skin")" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 19, 9:04 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

23.91%chance

3126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1096

568

Which FBS Independent Coaches will stay with their program through the 2026 season?

Jan 15, 5:44 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

17

OptionProbability

Jason Candle

Marcus Freeman

52

45

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