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Prediction markets for Steps

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

2333334

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

65

56

39

15

5

0

Will a human step foot on Mars by 2035?

Mar 5, 9:23 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.43%chance

9412157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1667

904

Will Elon Musk step foot on Mars before he passes away?

Jan 31, 1:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15%chance

587922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

722

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.77%chance

347169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3717

270

Will a human step foot on Mars by 2040?

Mar 5, 9:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34%chance

636537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1293

749

Will Magic remove the upkeep step before 2032?

May 27, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.53%chance

223144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2981

351

Will Joe Biden be alive on the day a human next steps on the moon?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.09%chance

372581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2935

1403

is Hegseth cutting "woke" top brass the first step in a planned Coup d'état?

Oct 1, 3:16 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

8.5%chance

62282

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3282

305

Will a human step foot on mars before the Toronto Maple Leafs win another Stanley Cup?

Jul 25, 4:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30.43%chance

91003

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1512

661

Will a Man, Woman, or Human step foot on Mars before 2045?

Feb 10, 12:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.01%chance

10854

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

Klingbeil steps down as SPD leader before the end of 2026

Aug 23, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.36%chance

10802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1323

756

Will the "Stepped Up Basis" rule be eliminated in the US federal tax code before 2035?

Aug 28, 8:27 PMSep 5, 3:59 AM

31.16%chance

2500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

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