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Prediction markets for Steps

Will a human step foot on Mars by 2030?

Mar 5, 9:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6.41%chance

13713584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2391

891

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1712257

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

64

56

44

30

9

5

Will a human step foot on Mars by 2035?

Mar 5, 9:23 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24%chance

9312113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1634

914

Will Elon Musk step foot on Mars before he passes away?

Jan 31, 1:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15%chance

587922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

722

Will a human step foot on Mars by 2040?

Mar 5, 9:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34%chance

636537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1293

749

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.28%chance

244492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3573

281

Will Magic remove the upkeep step before 2032?

May 27, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.85%chance

223094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2931

357

Will Elon Musk step foot on Mars AND get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Jan 31, 1:32 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

10%chance

272797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

968

Will Joe Biden be alive on the day a human next steps on the moon?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.58%chance

342030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2387

1675

Will a Man, Woman, or Human step foot on Mars before 2045?

Feb 10, 12:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.26%chance

9837

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1111

900

Will a human step foot on mars before the Toronto Maple Leafs win another Stanley Cup?

Jul 25, 4:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47%chance

8553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

942

Will the "Stepped Up Basis" rule be eliminated in the US federal tax code before 2035?

Aug 28, 8:27 PMSep 5, 3:59 AM

31.16%chance

2500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

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