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Prediction markets for Steps

Will a human step foot on Mars by 2030?

Mar 5, 9:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6.85%chance

13313043

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2252

901

Will a human step foot on Mars by 2035?

Mar 5, 9:23 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24%chance

9312113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1634

914

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1411132

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

62

53

43

29

10

5

Will Elon Musk step foot on Mars before he passes away?

Jan 31, 1:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15%chance

577622

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

722

Will a human step foot on Mars by 2040?

Mar 5, 9:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34%chance

636537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1293

749

Will Magic remove the upkeep step before 2032?

May 27, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.85%chance

223094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2931

357

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.07%chance

193036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3171

316

Will Elon Musk step foot on Mars AND get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Jan 31, 1:32 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.58%chance

262792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

963

Will Joe Biden be alive on the day a human next steps on the moon?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.58%chance

342030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2387

1675

Will the first human step foot on Mars on exactly January 1st 2036?

Aug 15, 7:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.83%chance

291646

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

953

Will the "Stepped Up Basis" rule be eliminated in the US federal tax code before 2035?

Aug 28, 8:27 PMSep 5, 3:59 AM

31.16%chance

2500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

Will a human step foot on mars before the Toronto Maple Leafs win another Stanley Cup?

Jul 25, 4:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

45.49%chance

5336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

914

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