Still in the Game News

At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose

Punt or Kick Return Touchdown

Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

Any team scores 24+ points before halftime

A player gets an Octopus

Any team scores 40+ points

Pick Six

Fat Guy Touchdown*

35% or higher Kick Return rate

A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)

At least one missed kicking extra point attempt

Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games

Will a championship belt change teams?*

A 4th and 11+ is converted*

California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)

At least 5 QBs throw for 300+ yards

Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

Largest FG made is from 57+ yards out

4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

Shutout

Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

MVP Favorite Changes (Matthew Stafford)

A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points

2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

All Starting Rookie QBs win

Safety Scored

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

Any Double Digit Underdog Wins

Fake Punt

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses

A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)

A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)

Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*

Scorigami

Any 400 yard passer

A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts

All Starting Rookie QBs lose

The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number

Neuralink trials have happened with volunteer humans

New Pope after Francis

three or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

five or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

Bitcoin has reached $100K at some point

Gold has reached $2500/oz at some point

ETH Ethereum has reached $2800 USD (again)

Ethereum ETH has reached $4000 again

xkcd is still producing new comics at least once a month

Taylor Swift has been married

USA's Supreme Court is still 9 justices (does not get expanded)

publicly available ChatGPT or similar LLM can solve sudokus reliably

True Detective Season 5 released

Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter

Super Smash Bros Melee still a popular esport

Destiny is still regularly livestreaming

Putin still leader of Russia

Xi still leader of China

No humans on the moon since Apollo

S&box fully released (Facepunch's new garry's mod like game)

Fortnite Crossover with the Simpsons

Zuckerberg still CEO of facebook/meta

Palworld is still able to be played through Steam

George RR Martin has released the next GoT / ASOIAF book (The Winds of Winter)

Slavoj Zizek still giving public talks

a twitter account has reached 500M followers

Charles still King of UK

Mr Beast has 500M or more subscribers on Youtube

Hiroyuki Nishimura is still the owner of 4chan

One Piece manga is still going (original series)

The tenth drop of the pitch drop experiment has fallen

Team Fortress 2 is still receiving periodic blog posts / small updates

Flo is still the progressive mascot (the actress still working )

At least one of the other prediction market websites has gone out of business

Iceland, Norway, or Japan has banned whaling

the game Rust is still receiving regular updates with new content (not just bug / small fixes)

Winner of 2028 election is Democrat

2h marathon has been officially broken by a human

Avatar still has the record for highest worldwide movie gross on BoxOfficeMojo

Old School Runescape has released Sailing and at least 1 other new skill

@strutheo is still on Manifold, with the same username

Bitcoin has reached $150K at least one time

Hytale has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

Apex Legends is still receiving updates and servers are online

A new official weapon has been added to Team Fortress 2 since after 2017

The Nintendo Switch successor console has sold at least 65 million units

Total mana bet on Manifold has peaked to 10B in one day at least once

Family Guy has ended

the Rmax of the top non distributed supercomputer is at least 3000 PFlop/Sec (according to top500.org)

Kingdom Hearts 4 has released

Jared Fogel OR Fetty Wap is out of prison

prong.studio still operational and selling products

Chameleon Twist 3 has released (or another sequel)

Kojima's Physint game has released

Coyote vs Acme releases or leaks

Nintendo still manufacturing Switch

Weak AGI achieved, as indicated by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

there will be a USA federal holiday in August (confirmed happening in 2028 or next year in 2029)

Magic the Gathering card has sold for $1M or more (other than the One Ring!)

Petco will have filed for bankruptcy

Manifold MAU has spiked to 40k+ at least two separate weeks/occasions

A North American team has won a Dota 2 International for the first time since 2015

At least one of Paul Biya, Pope Francis, Ali Khamenei is still in power

Manifold has sold $40K or more mana in the last 30 days before market close

A second feature length South Park movie has released (like South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut)

at least one spider man movie releases each year

Star Citizen has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

Chat GPT 7 or higher available for public use

Annoying Orange youtube channel is still uploading at least one video a month

jd vance has been president or wins the election to be one

Palestine / Israel will have come to an agreement on borders (post Oct 7)

Russia AND ROC are both forbidden from entering the Olympics still

Nintendo ends online play and other online services for Switch (as they did for WiiU and 3DS on April 8th 2024)

Rabbit is still selling R1 (or a sequel product) and it can be purchased by the average consumer

Amazon #1 book is by a politician or musician

Manifold has collapsed / bankrupt at least once already

The New England Patriots have either won a Super Bowl (2024-2027 seasons) or clinched the division (2028)

Build a Bear will have filed for bankruptcy or been bought

Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing

X (Twitter) brand has changed again (either back to Twitter or something other than X)

Amazon #1 book is a self-help book

1200 or more official pokemon

NFL has an official expansion team in Europe somewhere

I'll be dead.

China - Taiwan war / invasion begins

doomsday clock is 100 seconds or more from midnight

There will be a breakthrough in nuclear weaponry

Taylor Swift has been divorced

Dwarf Fortress ceases active development

China has landed a human on the moon

All 9 current Supreme Court justices from today (Jan 2024) are still serving

Turkey has a higher GDP (PPP) than the United Kingdom

a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons

Mana can be donated to charity through Manifold at the same rate (1 cent = 1 mana)

Chat GPT 8.5 or higher released for public use

someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating

a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated

The record for youngest Best Actor Academy Award Broken (Adrien Brody, The Pianist, age 29)

Trump has served at least 1 full day in jail/prison (not at home)

Josh Shapiro is the President-elect of the United States

JB Pritzker is the President-elect of the United States

Gretchen Whitmer is the President-elect of the United States

Jared Polis is the President-elect of the United States

No humans exist

Manifold Love is still getting updates or community support/events

Punt or Kick Return Touchdown

Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses

Any 400 yard passer

Overtime

35% or higher Kick Return rate

At least one missed kicking extra point attempt

Pick Six

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)

At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose

Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

Any team scores 24+ points before halftime

Any team scores 40+ points

2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

Will a championship belt change teams?*

Fake Punt

Largest FG made is from 57+ yards out

Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games

Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

Safety Scored

A 4th and 11+ is converted*

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

MVP Favorite Changes

At least 5 QBs throw for 300+ yards

A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts

4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number

Final score from any game contains two triangular numbers [0, 1, 3, 6, 10, 15, 21, 28, 36, 45, 55,...]

Fat Guy Touchdown*

A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points

A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)

Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

Shutout

A player gets an Octopus

A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)

California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)

All Starting Rookie QBs lose

Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game

Scorigami

Any Double Digit Underdog Wins

Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*

35% or higher Kick Return rate

At least one missed kicking extra point attempt

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

Pick Six

Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

Fake Punt

Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game

At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose

Punt or Kick Return Touchdown

Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

Any team scores 24+ points before halftime

Any team scores 40+ points

Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

Safety Scored

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

MVP Favorite Changes

A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)

Any 400 yard passer

Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games

2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

Will a championship belt change teams?*

A 4th and 11+ is converted*

California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)

At least 5 QBs throw for 300+ yards

A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts

For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

Final score from any game contains two triangular numbers [0, 1, 3, 6, 10, 15, 21, 28, 36, 45, 55,...]

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

A player gets an Octopus

The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number

Overtime

4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

Fat Guy Touchdown*

A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points

A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)

Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses

Largest FG made is from 57+ yards out

Shutout

Scorigami

A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)

Any Double Digit Underdog Wins

All Starting Rookie QBs lose

All Starting Rookie QBs win

35% or higher Kick Return rate

At least one missed kicking extra point attempt

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

Pick Six

Largest FG made is from 57+ yards out

Fake Punt

At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose

Punt or Kick Return Touchdown

Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

Any team scores 40+ points

Will a championship belt change teams?*

Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

Any team scores 24+ points before halftime

Safety Scored

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)

Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games

2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

A 4th and 11+ is converted*

California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)

A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

A player gets an Octopus

At least 5 QBs throw for 300+ yards

Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number

Overtime

4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses

Fat Guy Touchdown*

A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)

MVP Favorite Changes

All Starting Rookie QBs lose

All Starting Rookie QBs win

Any 400 yard passer

Shutout

A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)

Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game

Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*

Any Double Digit Underdog Wins

NO

Domain-specific models will still outperform general-purpose chatbots in many domains (board games, video games, protein folding, logistics, navigation, etc).

Some current (2025) occupations, though, will no longer exist.

There will still be plenty of jobs in which humans experts far outclass AI.

Pure LLMs will still hallucinate (alternative architectures may do better).

Driverless taxi rides will be common, but still in limited cities, available in less than 50% of the world’s major (100k+) cities.

Pure LLMs will still make stupid errors (alternative architectures may do better).

Profit margins for LLMs will be slim.

Humanoid home robots over 5’ tall will still be demos, not in widespread release.

NO

NO

NO

YES

NO