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Stock Market News

In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?

Mar 8, 1:23 PMMar 9, 4:59 AM

14%chance

9611021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2557

268

Unspecified Stock Market Variable (USMV)

Jun 1, 7:55 PM

222244

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1329

1172

Will the Stock Market ( S&P 500 ) drop 25% below its current all time high in 2025? 🇺🇸📉🏦🤑

May 11, 3:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

101689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Manifold Market Ponzi Scheme Stock

Aug 13, 6:14 AMAug 14, 3:59 AM

161352

OptionProbability

NO

YES

981

931

Manifold bans "Permanent Stock" markets before 2030

Dec 15, 8:40 PMDec 31, 5:01 PM

30.22%chance

181019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1077

713

Will the US stock market have experienced another lost decade before 2034?

Sep 16, 8:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.32%chance

18994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

919

2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026?

Dec 15, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17879

OptionProbability

Up 5% to 14%

Up 4% or less

Up 15% to 24%

Down 4% or less

Down 5% to 14%

Up 25% or more

Down 15% to 24%

Down 25% or more

36

21

17

10

7

3

3

3

Chess Players Stock Market (Pick your favorite professional players)

Jan 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13669

OptionProbability

Hikaru Nakamura

Magnus Carlsen

D Gukesh

Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş

Vincent Kaymer

Anish Giri

Viswanathan Anand

Fabiano Caruana

Ding Liren

Alireza Firouzja

Wesley So

R Praggnanandhaa

Vidit Gujrathi

Jan-Krzysztof Duda

Other

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Leinier Dominguez Perez

Sergey Karjakin

Parham Maghsoodloo

Wei Yi

Arjun Erigaisi

Maxime Vachier-Legrave

Alexander Grischuk

Lê Quang Liêm

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Veselin Topalov

Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

22

13

12

11

6

5

5

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Canada's stock market outperform the US's during Trump's 2nd term?

Apr 24, 4:41 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

64.08%chance

15415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

75

AI: >1% of US Stock Market (2030)

Jan 9, 4:11 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

89.07%chance

9386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

312

38

Manifold Markets Stock

Mar 9, 12:07 AM

6251

OptionProbability

NO

YES

139

72

LLM-generated comments on Manifold Markets Stock (Permament)

Apr 11, 5:20 PMApr 11, 9:59 PM

12219

OptionProbability

NO

YES

253

204

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