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Prediction markets for Stock Market

In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?

Mar 8, 1:23 PMMar 9, 4:59 AM

16.73%chance

9310771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2354

305

Unspecified Stock Market Variable (USMV)

Jun 1, 7:55 PM

222244

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1329

1172

Will the Stock Market ( S&P 500 ) drop 25% below its current all time high in 2025? 🇺🇸📉🏦🤑

May 11, 3:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.9%chance

101413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

719

14

Manifold Market Ponzi Scheme Stock

Aug 13, 6:14 AMAug 14, 3:59 AM

161347

OptionProbability

NO

YES

976

935

Will the US stock market increase ≥3x by the end of 2028?

Jul 31, 11:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.78%chance

151342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

530

289

Manifold bans "Permanent Stock" markets before 2030

Dec 15, 8:40 PMDec 31, 5:01 PM

30.22%chance

181019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1077

713

Will the US stock market have experienced another lost decade before 2034?

Sep 16, 8:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.32%chance

18994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

919

2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026?

Dec 15, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12726

OptionProbability

Up 5% to 14%

Up 15% to 24%

Down 5% to 14%

Up 4% or less

Down 4% or less

Down 25% or more

Down 15% to 24%

Up 25% or more

40

22

10

9

7

5

4

3

LLM-generated comments on Manifold Markets Stock (Permament)

Apr 11, 5:20 PMApr 11, 9:59 PM

12219

OptionProbability

NO

YES

253

204

Manifold Markets Stock

Mar 9, 12:07 AM

6204

OptionProbability

NO

YES

186

54

AI: >1% of US Stock Market (2050)

Jan 9, 4:11 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

85%chance

5171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

191

51

Will there be a new record breaking IPO on the USA stock market before the end of 2028? (inflation adjusted)

May 2, 7:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.61%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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