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Prediction markets for Stockfish

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

118369933

OptionProbability

2050 or earlier

2040 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

End of 2025 or earlier

20

19

19

10

9

8

4

2

0

0

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Jul 12, 12:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

38.68%chance

9734296

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1173

318

Will any GPT beat Stockfish in a fair fight before 2030?

Dec 14, 3:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.77%chance

5610829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1240

876

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

Feb 16, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.1%chance

463672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1464

573

Which chess engine will be the strongest at the end of 2031?

Apr 1, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

262353

OptionProbability

Stockfish

Other

LCZero

KomodoDragon

AlphaZero

a chess engine by kenshin9000

Houdini

66

18

15

0

0

0

0

Which chess engine will be the strongest at the end of 2028?

May 1, 7:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

221114

OptionProbability

Stockfish

Other

LCZero

Torch

KomodoDragon

AlphaZero

a chess engine by kenshin9000

Houdini

80

11

5

2

1

1

1

1

Is 1. g4 a losing move for white?

May 21, 11:21 PMMay 22, 6:59 AM

65.58%chance

12677

OptionVotes

NO

YES

184

153

Will AI continue to improve?

Jun 1, 7:24 PMJan 1, 8:17 PM

92.03%chance

10435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

340

29

Will an LLM defeat Magnus Carlsen before 2029?

Feb 25, 6:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.92%chance

10294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

Least point odds for white in a solved odds chess game by 2040

Feb 10, 11:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

6202

OptionProbability

YES

NO

442

263

[Carlini questions] Will people regularly trust AI systems to "know best"

Mar 24, 2:27 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5105

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

80

67

60

34

22

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Aug 1, 4:22 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

40.34%chance

153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

92

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