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Prediction markets for Stockfish

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

112369429

OptionProbability

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2040 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

End of 2025 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2027 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

20

20

19

9

7

2

1

1

1

0

Will any GPT beat Stockfish in a fair fight before 2030?

Dec 14, 3:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.74%chance

5510774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1196

891

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Jul 12, 12:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

44%chance

597406

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1211

264

Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?

Feb 16, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.55%chance

433595

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1634

496

Which chess engine will be the strongest at the end of 2031?

Apr 1, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

252343

OptionProbability

Stockfish

Other

LCZero

KomodoDragon

AlphaZero

a chess engine by kenshin9000

Houdini

68

18

14

0

0

0

0

Which chess engine will be the strongest at the end of 2028?

May 1, 7:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

221114

OptionProbability

Stockfish

Other

LCZero

Torch

KomodoDragon

AlphaZero

a chess engine by kenshin9000

Houdini

80

11

5

2

1

1

1

1

Is 1. g4 a losing move for white?

May 21, 11:21 PMMay 22, 6:59 AM

70.93%chance

10663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

215

139

Least point odds for white in a solved odds chess game by 2040

Feb 10, 11:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

6202

OptionProbability

YES

NO

442

263

[Carlini questions] Will people regularly trust AI systems to "know best"

Mar 24, 2:27 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

488

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

73

67

60

34

28

Criteria suggestions for a deterministic chess bot

Nov 27, 2:08 AM

00

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