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Prediction markets for Storis
What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?
May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM
8519498
OptionProbability
98
97
88
82
82
82
78
75
63
63
62
57
54
53
51
40
21
13
[planecrash] Will Keltham survive the story, including epilogue?
Apr 4, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
91.75%chance
152522
OptionVotes
1649
900
When will I mistake an AI-generated short story for a story from the New Yorker, in at least 1 of 5 tries?
Nov 22, 7:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
132249
OptionProbability
42
26
18
8
3
3
How many stories in the "Dunk and Egg" series will be published in George R. R. Martin's lifetime?
Sep 15, 7:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
31418
OptionProbability
46
43
37
33
14
11
Will Joscha Bach OR janus/repligate OR nearcyan OR NickCammarata be mentioned in FanFiction.Net story by EOY2026?
Jan 13, 6:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
69.23%chance
2898
OptionVotes
150
67
Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?
Dec 6, 1:31 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
90.42%chance
16748
OptionVotes
1664
878
Will "The CIA Poisoned My Dog: Two Stories About Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jan 1, 10:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.91%chance
4621
OptionVotes
1401
947
Will The Expanse TV show return to finish the story?
Sep 10, 11:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50.99%chance
17377
OptionVotes
1043
943
OptionProbability
35
30
28
25
22
20
18
15
12
10
Will J.K. Rowling ever write another story taking place in the Harry Potter universe?
Aug 2, 11:51 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
84.8%chance
792
OptionVotes
210
99
🇬🇧 Will the BBC’s top story be about UK heat-related deaths by end of 2030
Aug 4, 12:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
47.64%chance
150
OptionVotes
1048
954
Will any major science fiction short story markets lift their categorical ban on writing with LLMs by 2030?
Jul 25, 6:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
43.17%chance
225
OptionVotes
115
87