Story News
Prediction markets for Story
What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?
May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM
8519498
OptionProbability
98
97
88
82
82
82
78
75
63
63
62
57
54
53
51
40
21
13
Which One Piece character will have an Eye Patch at the end of the story?
Mar 4, 3:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
433056
OptionProbability
30
24
21
20
2
2
0
0
0
[planecrash] Will Keltham survive the story, including epilogue?
Apr 4, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
91.75%chance
152522
OptionVotes
1649
900
When will I mistake an AI-generated short story for a story from the New Yorker, in at least 1 of 5 tries?
Nov 22, 7:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
132249
OptionProbability
42
26
18
8
3
3
Will a AAA single-player game use artificial intelligence for real-time story generation by the beginning of 2035?
Dec 6, 1:31 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
90.42%chance
16748
OptionVotes
1664
878
Will "The CIA Poisoned My Dog: Two Stories About Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jan 1, 10:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.91%chance
4621
OptionVotes
1401
947
Will The Expanse TV show return to finish the story?
Sep 10, 11:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50.99%chance
17377
OptionVotes
1043
943
What will be the outcome of the controversy concerning R. F. Kuang's Taipei Story ARC?
May 4, 8:39 PMOct 8, 8:24 PM
3175
OptionProbability
50
41
10
10
10
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
50
50
50
50
50
50
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will "My supervillain origin story" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jan 30, 9:15 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
7.16%chance
190
OptionVotes
190
90
🇬🇧 Will the BBC’s top story be about UK heat-related deaths by end of 2030
Aug 4, 12:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
47.64%chance
150
OptionVotes
1048
954
OptionVotes
110
91

