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Prediction markets for Strategic Plan

Will the USA invade Canada before 2029?

Jan 22, 1:46 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.98%chance

3719973

OptionVotes

YES

NO

571

18

8. OpenAI, Anthropic and other frontier labs will begin ‘moving up the stack,’ [...] building applications

Dec 27, 8:22 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

93.64%chance

163091

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3838

261

As of January 1, 2026, will the following assets be held in a US national strategic crypto reserve?

Mar 3, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

201361

OptionProbability

Bitcoin (BTC)

Tether (USDT)

Cardano (ADA)

XRP

Ethereum (ETH)

Solana (SOL)

Dogecoin (DOGE)

91

65

59

47

40

34

28

US Crypto reserve hacked or disappeared before January 20, 2029?

Mar 25, 1:45 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

35.72%chance

7767

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1341

745

Contingent on Greenland invasion by USA, China invades Taiwan within 1 year?

Mar 31, 1:23 AMJan 21, 2:23 AM

31.66%chance

14639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

68

Will OpenAI provide API access to o4 within 30 days of releasing GPT-5?

Jul 27, 12:46 AMJan 1, 1:46 AM

8.16%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

335

30

Will persona 6 be announced before 2029

Jul 30, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.05%chance

7276

OptionVotes

NO

YES

239

42

What will be the initial capitalization of the US national strategic crypto reserve?

Mar 3, 3:11 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

6252

OptionProbability

Between $10 billion and $50 billion

Between $1 billion and $10 billion

Between $50 billion and $100 billion

Greater than $100 billion

>$0, less than $1 billion

Has not been capitalized as of January 21, 2029

52

19

12

8

6

4

Will GPT-5 be able to come up with a carefully strategic plan for the game of Colonel Blotto?

Dec 7, 11:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.37%chance

8123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

357

290

Will a Chinese armed forces pilot defect to Taiwan with their aircraft before 2030?

Dec 12, 2:41 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

27.08%chance

780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

163

Will TAG Grading overtake PSA as the biggest collectible authenticator before the end of 2025?

Feb 27, 11:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.59%chance

262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

62

Major EV manufacturer announces 10%+ layoffs in 2025?

Jun 7, 7:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.03%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

110

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