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Prediction markets for Strategy

Will "MIRI 2024 Communications Strategy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

May 29, 9:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

25.74%chance

111841

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1112

522

Will Elon Musk use the X rebrand as defense strategy during Twitter bankruptcy by December 2027?

Aug 12, 4:40 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

26.77%chance

181382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

722

Will Paradox Interactive publish a grand strategy game set in 2000s/2010s before 2031?

May 4, 12:08 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

12.56%chance

10883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

264

38

Will Nayib Bukele's Anti-Gang strategy be seen as a positive model in 2030?

Feb 25, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

42.03%chance

13835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1355

600

Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before 2030?

Dec 31, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.3%chance

17686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

554

Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before the end of 2027?

Dec 31, 2:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.02%chance

23655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

954

Will Paradox Interactive publish a Cold War grand strategy game before 2030?

Dec 30, 7:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.67%chance

14615

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

84

Will Paradox Interactive publish a Cold War grand strategy game before the end of 2027?

Dec 31, 7:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.55%chance

12408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

382

72

Will my battery redqueening strategy backfire?

May 16, 7:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.6%chance

16173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

994

Will "Towards more cooperative AI safety strategies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 16, 8:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.36%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

803

Will "The Failed Strategy of Artificial Intelligenc..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 1, 5:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.92%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

95

Will Paradox release a grand strategy game that covers the year 632 as part of its unmodded timeline by the end of 2029?

Feb 15, 8:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.36%chance

212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

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