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Prediction markets for Strategy Day

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47.04%chance

494414247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3018

2140

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68%chance

25135143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2155

2105

Will Intel stock reach $100 by the end of 2026?

Jan 9, 5:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.65%chance

147515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1542

650

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7748

3856

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM

13.48%chance

172458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1266

918

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

16.12%chance

112352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2281

438

Will the European Commission publish a new quantum strategy document within the next 60 days?

Jan 26, 8:22 PMMar 27, 8:21 PM

70.56%chance

192177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1548

646

Will Isaac del Toro win a Grand Tour before 2028?

May 27, 6:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.46%chance

12751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

Will my battery redqueening strategy backfire?

May 16, 7:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.6%chance

16173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

994

Daily distribution ETF by end of 2026?

Oct 26, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

3102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Which Monetization Strategy Will Generate the Most Revenue for Ten Today?

Jul 3, 5:12 AMJul 3, 3:59 AM

175

OptionProbability

Merchandise

Manifold user donates money (email contact@tentoday.net to donate)

75

50

Help Al Quinn find good movies (because nearly everything is terrible) 12K Mana Bounty!

Mar 9, 8:51 PM

00

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