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Prediction markets for Strategy Day

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

84.53%chance

612543987

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6089

702

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87%chance

27143410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4674

1450

Which of these people will speak at Voliti Co’s Predict 2026 (predict2026.org)?

Aug 27, 10:44 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

1415931

OptionProbability

Stephen Grugett, Manifold and MNX

Tarek Mansour, Kalshi

Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi

Shayne Coplan, Polymarket

Michael S. Selig, Chairman of the CFTC

Terry Duffy, CME

91

80

46

27

12

10

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.62%chance

317578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8332

3592

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM

13.48%chance

172458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1266

918

Will Isaac del Toro win a Grand Tour before 2028?

May 27, 6:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.03%chance

191164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

69

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

Will my battery redqueening strategy backfire?

May 16, 7:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.6%chance

16173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

994

Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?

Mar 16, 9:29 PMMar 16, 9:28 PM

65.93%chance

12152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

Daily distribution ETF by end of 2026?

Oct 26, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

3102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

What books/reading will I enjoy? [ADD ANSWERS]

Sep 12, 5:05 AMSep 11, 5:01 AM

00

OptionProbability

(Reserved 1)

(Reserved 2)

(Reserved 3)

(Reserved 4)

50

50

50

50

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