OptionProbability
Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year
Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)
Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time
Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human
Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)
Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes
Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)
Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated
Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)
Solve novel cryptic crossword clues
Name every [metro system] station whose name contains/doesn't contain [letter or letters], with >95% accuracy (excluding weird edge cases like stations with multiple names)
Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time
Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)
Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)
Write a somewhat original, full length, screen-play with a coherent story, with no plot or continuity errors.
Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user
Make correct Truchet tiles
1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human
Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools
Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)
Fold a paper airplane
Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human
Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".
Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.
Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public
Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)
teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus
Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson
Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance
Kettle-stitching an antiquarian book - Hilarius Bookbinder
Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed
Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission
independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year
Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman
Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)
voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold
Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved
Faster than light travel
Kill everyone - Liron
90
88
86
82
80
80
76
74
73
72
72
71
67
66
63
62
60
56
50
46
46
45
45
44
36
31
30
25
23
18
16
12
11
9
5
5
4
3
2
OptionProbability
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Half yeast
Bake it with your best friend.
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Bake for 5 more minutes
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Do a second rise
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
Use sourdough instead of yeast
don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Make banana bread
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
Add garlic
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
put ketchup and cheese on it
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
Add slurs to it
Brush on an egg wash
Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Make the bread taste good
Bake for 15 more minutes
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Watch the video
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference
Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix
Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)
Taste the bread
Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Use a convection oven/setting
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Make the bread great again
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake one more minute
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Increase water by 50 g
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Replace salt with sugar
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Strawberry jelly filling
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Improve the bread
Quadruple salt
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Add caffeine to the bread
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Implementing every element listed below.
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
it needs more salt
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Use lemonade instead of water.
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Autolyse 20 minutes
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Add a pinch of sugar
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake vegimite into it.
Bake vodka into it
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
89
85
81
80
78
78
77
73
72
69
69
68
67
67
66
63
62
62
62
59
58
57
57
56
55
55
53
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
47
45
43
43
42
41
41
41
40
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37
35
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31
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26
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25
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11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
NO
YES
2197
753
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1214
406
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1631
627
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1126
924
OptionProbability
YES
NO
199
102
OptionProbability
Above 5
Above 7
Above 9
Above 11
Above 13
Above 15
Above 17
Above 19
Above 21
Above 23
Above 25
99
76
72
60
50
50
50
50
43
35
12
OptionProbability
No plants will be known to be growing
Other
A novel species engineered for the purpose
Algae (non seaweed)
le moon grass
Strawberries
Potatoes
Seaweed
Duckweed
Flowers (of any kind)
Corn
Grass
Blueberries
Carrots
24
17
14
11
7
7
5
5
4
2
1
1
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
169
166
