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Prediction markets for Street

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on Sesame Street by 2030?

Mar 9, 3:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.57%chance

8910852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

444

302

Humanoid robots walking down the street by EOY2035?

Jun 18, 3:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.41%chance

94480

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5215

383

When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles?

Mar 3, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

302616

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2026

2024

2025

72

56

32

0

0

Jane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+?

Jul 5, 11:39 AMJul 6, 11:33 AM

41.63%chance

242019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

845

Did Jane Street do anything wrong in India?

Jul 9, 9:59 PMJan 1, 5:51 PM

47.56%chance

251610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Will NYC close an entire street to cars before 2050?

May 22, 8:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

84.94%chance

91421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2375

421

Will Nestle Fix their Quality Street "Chocolates" and Import them back into Australia from UK again by Christmas 2026?

Jan 16, 8:12 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

11.59%chance

51188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3013

2735

Sesame Street stock

Apr 10, 5:45 AMApr 11, 3:59 AM

181141

OptionProbability

YES

NO

359

198

Will Sesame Street end before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 26, 4:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.79%chance

33776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2346

1832

Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.42%chance

15577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

887

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

47.81%chance

16269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

968

Street Fighter vs Mortal Kombat II vs Call of Duty domestic box office

May 4, 7:45 AMDec 29, 8:44 AM

110

OptionProbability

Mortal Kombat II

Call of Duty

Street Fighter

36

36

28

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