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Prediction markets for Street

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on Sesame Street by 2030?

Mar 9, 3:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.57%chance

8910852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

444

302

Humanoid robots walking down the street by EOY2035?

Jun 18, 3:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.41%chance

94480

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5215

383

Jane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+?

Jul 5, 11:39 AMJul 6, 11:33 AM

38.08%chance

262125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

784

Did Jane Street do anything wrong in India?

Jul 9, 9:59 PMJan 1, 5:51 PM

47.56%chance

251610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Will NYC close an entire street to cars before 2050?

May 22, 8:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

84.94%chance

91421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2375

421

Will Nestle Fix their Quality Street "Chocolates" and Import them back into Australia from UK again by Christmas 2026?

Jan 16, 8:12 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

11.59%chance

51188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3013

2735

Will Sesame Street end before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 26, 4:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.79%chance

33776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2346

1832

Will Golden Gate Park charge for street parking by 2026-06-30?

Feb 24, 12:01 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

5589

OptionProbability

No metered parking happens before 2026-06-30

2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31

2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30

2025-10-01 to 2025-12-31

Before 2025-09-30

91

3

3

2

1

Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.42%chance

15577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

887

Will Waymo still have serious problems with flooded streets in 2027?

May 22, 10:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.99%chance

5297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

961

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

47.81%chance

16269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

968

Will there be a high-street retail outlet successfully running with only robotic and AI systems, for at least a week without intervention from a physically-present person, before 2027?

Jan 26, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

7161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

205

91

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