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Prediction markets for Street

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on Sesame Street by 2030?

Mar 9, 3:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.09%chance

8410698

OptionVotes

NO

YES

446

250

Will there still be a bi-directional center bike lane on Valencia Street in San Francisco at the end of 2025?

May 21, 3:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.44%chance

88041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8287

121

Jane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+?

Jul 5, 11:39 AMJul 6, 11:33 AM

38.7%chance

231969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

795

Did Jane Street do anything wrong in India?

Jul 9, 9:59 PMJan 1, 5:51 PM

47.51%chance

241609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

951

Sesame Street stock

Apr 10, 5:45 AMApr 11, 3:59 AM

181141

OptionProbability

YES

NO

359

198

Will NYC close an entire street to cars before 2050?

May 22, 8:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

80.4%chance

91071

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2025

494

Humanoid robots walking down the street by EOY2035?

Jun 18, 3:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.17%chance

6860

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1901

864

Will Sesame Street end before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 26, 4:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.79%chance

33776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2346

1832

Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.42%chance

15577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

887

Will Golden Gate Park charge for street parking by 2026-06-30?

Feb 24, 12:01 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

4521

OptionProbability

No metered parking happens before 2026-06-30

2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31

2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30

Before 2025-09-30

2025-10-01 to 2025-12-31

90

3

3

2

2

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

47.81%chance

16269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

968

Will Taylor Swift ever walk Cornelia Street again? (Before 2030)

Nov 7, 4:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.25%chance

6117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

83

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