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Prediction markets for Structured Outputs

Will a radio station play any AI music I create in 2025?

Jan 10, 6:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.66%chance

5623324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

541

Will any AI music I release achieve a Manifold rating >= 5 in 2025?

Jan 1, 9:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.85%chance

2119550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1487

673

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2070?

Dec 17, 11:18 AMMar 3, 10:59 PM

15%chance

6216471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

880

Will any AI music I release achieve 10,000 listens on Soundcloud in 2025?

Jan 9, 12:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.69%chance

6716117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1159

863

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2030?

Dec 22, 2:21 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

2.01%chance

5312212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2167

928

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2100?

Dec 26, 6:00 PMMar 2, 10:59 PM

18%chance

5510324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

839

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2050?

Dec 20, 11:09 AMJan 21, 10:59 PM

11.16%chance

356453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

594

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2090?

Dec 19, 1:05 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

17%chance

455209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

905

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2060?

Dec 15, 9:37 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

11.48%chance

444749

OptionVotes

NO

YES

970

875

Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026?

Oct 26, 7:07 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.61%chance

483671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1696

644

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.18%chance

9660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1339

747

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