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Prediction markets for Structured Outputs

Will any AI music I release achieve 10,000 listens on Soundcloud in 2025?

Jan 9, 12:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.52%chance

8129265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5234

191

Will a radio station play any AI music I create in 2025?

Jan 10, 6:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.63%chance

5924509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5152

194

Will any AI music I release achieve a Manifold rating >= 5 in 2025?

Jan 1, 9:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.35%chance

2923870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2795

358

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2070?

Dec 17, 11:18 AMMar 3, 10:59 PM

15%chance

6217021

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

880

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2100?

Dec 26, 6:00 PMMar 2, 10:59 PM

18%chance

5610429

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

839

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2050?

Dec 20, 11:09 AMJan 21, 10:59 PM

10.33%chance

376583

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

644

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2090?

Dec 19, 1:05 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

16.98%chance

465210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

906

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2060?

Dec 15, 9:37 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

11.44%chance

445066

OptionVotes

NO

YES

969

878

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2080?

Dec 18, 12:31 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

16%chance

374927

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

892

Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026?

Oct 26, 7:07 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.23%chance

503977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1976

572

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

63.69%chance

10668

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1324

755

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