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Prediction markets for Study and Learn

Which of these people will speak at Voliti Co’s Predict 2026 (predict2026.org)?

Aug 27, 10:44 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

1616734

OptionProbability

Stephen Grugett, Manifold and MNX

Tarek Mansour, Kalshi

Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi

Shayne Coplan, Polymarket

Michael S. Selig, Chairman of the CFTC

Terry Duffy, CME

92

70

46

27

12

10

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

894

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

What is my IQ ?

Apr 13, 8:24 PMApr 19, 10:00 PM

816864

OptionProbability

[115-infinity[

[110-115[

[105-110[

[100-105[

[95-100[

[85-90[

[90-95[

[0-85[

69

19

6

4

2

0

0

0

will i drop out of college?

Aug 9, 10:38 AMJun 30, 2:59 PM

14.22%chance

363678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2429

359

If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?

Apr 5, 5:57 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

65.95%chance

632385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1476

649

What'll be the conclusions of a large study into the ease of learning quantum mechanics with different interpretations?

Oct 15, 2:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41961

OptionProbability

"Teach the controversy" makes it harder to learn than any of them

QBism makes it easiest to learn

Many-worlds makes it easiest to learn

GRW makes it easiest to learn

De Broglie-Bohm makes it easiest to learn

Retrocausality makes it easiest to learn

48

25

20

20

20

20

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.68%chance

4780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4261

3904

Widespread UBI and Metaverse Immersion for the Majority of adults in most developed nations by 2035?

May 5, 10:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.51%chance

10257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

243

41

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

119

Will fibromyalgia be shown to reflect one main condition rather than many?

Jan 20, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.78%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

Connectome of jumping spider or a Portia spider by 2031

May 12, 11:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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