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Prediction markets for Study and Learn

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

894

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

What is my IQ ?

Apr 13, 8:24 PMApr 19, 10:00 PM

786684

OptionProbability

[115-infinity[

[110-115[

[95-100[

[100-105[

[105-110[

[85-90[

[90-95[

[0-85[

64

11

9

9

6

0

0

0

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

14.47%chance

223780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

283

will i drop out of college?

Aug 9, 10:38 AMJun 30, 2:59 PM

19.63%chance

353273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2024

440

If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?

Apr 5, 5:57 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

65.95%chance

632385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1476

649

What'll be the conclusions of a large study into the ease of learning quantum mechanics with different interpretations?

Oct 15, 2:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41951

OptionProbability

"Teach the controversy" makes it harder to learn than any of them

QBism makes it easiest to learn

Many-worlds makes it easiest to learn

GRW makes it easiest to learn

De Broglie-Bohm makes it easiest to learn

Retrocausality makes it easiest to learn

51

25

20

20

20

20

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

23.97%chance

111852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1781

562

Will epigenetic reprogramming-related pathways rank among the top ten pathways that improve neural graft survival?

Nov 24, 5:06 AMMar 24, 4:05 AM

73.65%chance

61024

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1672

598

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.57%chance

3280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4054

3761

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

Jan 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.21%chance

4115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

215

47

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

48.5%chance

866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

135

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