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Prediction markets for Study and Learn

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

894

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

What is my IQ ?

Apr 13, 8:24 PMApr 19, 10:00 PM

806744

OptionProbability

[115-infinity[

[110-115[

[95-100[

[90-95[

[105-110[

[100-105[

[85-90[

[0-85[

60

12

8

7

7

6

0

0

Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

14.47%chance

223780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

283

will i drop out of college?

Aug 9, 10:38 AMJun 30, 2:59 PM

19.55%chance

353278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2029

439

If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?

Apr 5, 5:57 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

65.95%chance

632385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1476

649

What'll be the conclusions of a large study into the ease of learning quantum mechanics with different interpretations?

Oct 15, 2:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41951

OptionProbability

"Teach the controversy" makes it harder to learn than any of them

QBism makes it easiest to learn

Many-worlds makes it easiest to learn

GRW makes it easiest to learn

De Broglie-Bohm makes it easiest to learn

Retrocausality makes it easiest to learn

51

25

20

20

20

20

Will epigenetic reprogramming-related pathways rank among the top ten pathways that improve neural graft survival?

Nov 24, 5:06 AMMar 24, 4:05 AM

79.8%chance

111395

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1987

503

Where will I study abroad?

Apr 28, 5:52 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

7526

OptionProbability

Cape Town, South Africa

NONE

Oxford, UK

Madrid, Spain

Santiago, Chile

Kyoto, Japan

Washington, DC

Other

Berlin, Germany

Beijing, China

Florence, Italy

New York City

Paris, France

Istanbul, Turkey

Hong Kong

Australia (mobile)

72

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.57%chance

3280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4054

3761

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

Jan 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.21%chance

4115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

215

47

Will fibromyalgia be shown to reflect one main condition rather than many?

Jan 20, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.78%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

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