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Prediction markets for Su

Will Open AI be sued by Studio Ghibli or block Ghibification in 2025?

Mar 26, 6:08 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

10%chance

778715

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will X (fka Twitter) be sued by the US government for refusing to remove content by the end of 2025?

Aug 31, 3:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.05%chance

83478

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1880

532

Will OpenAI be sued (with standing) for using transcribed YouTube videos for GPT before 2026?

Apr 15, 11:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.29%chance

192762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2531

650

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2028?

Apr 10, 6:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.65%chance

231334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

760

Will an AI provider be sued due to the actions taken by their AI by the end of 2025?

Dec 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.92%chance

181002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1269

463

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm and found liable for damage caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2029?

Apr 13, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.3%chance

17991

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1207

923

Will Lantern Biotech get sued for over $1M by 2029?

Apr 11, 5:25 PMApr 19, 6:59 AM

35.65%chance

29989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

970

Will a company get sued for giving a human a captcha they can't solve?

Mar 16, 8:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.95%chance

17966

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1449

842

Trump is suing the gov’t for the Mar-a-Lago raid. Will the FBI fail or refuse to provide subpoenaed communications?

Aug 13, 12:35 AMAug 13, 3:59 AM

55.24%chance

4400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1111

900

Will Tainui be successful suing the government for their Maori language policy?

Jan 12, 7:19 PMOct 20, 6:59 AM

65.62%chance

394

OptionVotes

NO

YES

69

36

Will Su-wei Hsieh win another tennis Grand Slam?

Jan 14, 5:06 AMMar 12, 1:29 PM

75.38%chance

275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

175

57

Will Ben Shapiro be criminally charged, indicted, or SEC-sued before 2040?

Oct 27, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.86%chance

465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

61

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