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Prediction markets for Su

Will OpenAI be sued for Copyright violations related to Sora 2?

Oct 7, 10:17 PMDec 31, 10:20 PM

87.18%chance

82435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2608

384

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm and found liable for damage caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2029?

Apr 13, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.13%chance

201986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

652

Will I be sued for defamation before the end of the decade?

Jan 25, 7:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.41%chance

91553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2257

443

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2028?

Apr 10, 6:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.58%chance

251459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

825

Will an emergency service provider be sued because of an AI system by eoy2027?

Aug 25, 5:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.78%chance

181090

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

873

Will Lantern Biotech get sued for over $1M by 2029?

Apr 11, 5:25 PMApr 19, 6:59 AM

35.65%chance

29989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

970

Which country will be the first confirmed export customer of the Russian Su-57 Felon fifth-generation fighter jet?

Nov 20, 7:21 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

5285

OptionProbability

Algeria

Iran

India

Other

None before 2030

North Korea

China

Indonesia

Belarus

Vietnam

Turkey

Egypt

87

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Tainui be successful suing the government for their Maori language policy?

Jan 12, 7:19 PMOct 20, 6:59 AM

40%chance

4119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

61

41

Will the non-fiction writers suing OpenAI and Microsoft obtain class certification?

Jan 8, 2:45 PMJan 2, 9:59 PM

10.01%chance

2111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

17

Will Su-wei Hsieh win another tennis Grand Slam?

Jan 14, 5:06 AMMar 12, 1:29 PM

68.93%chance

385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

Who in the Forbes 30 Under 30 2025 list will be charged, indicted, or SEC-sued before 2040?

Dec 14, 6:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

257

OptionProbability

Oban MacTavish

Molly Mielke

Maya Kuppermann

Demi Guo

Anirudh Joshi

Rob Baldoni

Kathryn Newton

Collins Obinna Chibueze ("Shaboozey")

Peggy Wang

Gökçe Güven

Jenny Lei

Sonia Yang

Daniel Marin

Ben Nowack

Zander Isaacson

Brian Waddick

Jordan Taylor

Jayson Tatum

Jared Quincy Davis

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

Will the Su-75 have entered service in Russia by the end of 2033?

Jun 6, 9:19 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

35.02%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

91

55

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