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WhatsApp YouTube X

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Prediction markets for Su

Will X (fka Twitter) be sued by the US government for refusing to remove content by the end of 2025?

Aug 31, 3:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.54%chance

94238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2640

379

Will a company get sued for giving a human a captcha they can't solve?

Mar 16, 8:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.73%chance

193068

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2800

668

Will OpenAI be sued (with standing) for using transcribed YouTube videos for GPT before 2026?

Apr 15, 11:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.29%chance

192762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2531

650

Will OpenAI be sued for Copyright violations related to Sora 2?

Oct 7, 10:17 PMDec 31, 10:20 PM

91.57%chance

62355

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3295

304

Will an AI provider be sued due to the actions taken by their AI by the end of 2025?

Dec 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

83.98%chance

222135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1480

871

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm and found liable for damage caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2029?

Apr 13, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.13%chance

201986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

652

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2028?

Apr 10, 6:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.89%chance

251409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

775

Will Lantern Biotech get sued for over $1M by 2029?

Apr 11, 5:25 PMApr 19, 6:59 AM

35.65%chance

29989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

970

Trump is suing the gov’t for the Mar-a-Lago raid. Will the FBI fail or refuse to provide subpoenaed communications?

Aug 13, 12:35 AMAug 13, 3:59 AM

55.24%chance

4400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1111

900

Will Tainui be successful suing the government for their Maori language policy?

Jan 12, 7:19 PMOct 20, 6:59 AM

40%chance

4119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

61

41

Will Ben Shapiro be criminally charged, indicted, or SEC-sued before 2040?

Oct 27, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.86%chance

465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

61

Who in the Forbes 30 Under 30 2025 list will be charged, indicted, or SEC-sued before 2040?

Dec 14, 6:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

257

OptionProbability

Oban MacTavish

Molly Mielke

Maya Kuppermann

Demi Guo

Anirudh Joshi

Rob Baldoni

Kathryn Newton

Collins Obinna Chibueze ("Shaboozey")

Peggy Wang

Gökçe Güven

Jenny Lei

Sonia Yang

Daniel Marin

Ben Nowack

Zander Isaacson

Brian Waddick

Jordan Taylor

Jayson Tatum

Jared Quincy Davis

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

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