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Prediction markets for Su

Will OpenAI be sued for Copyright violations related to Sora 2?

Oct 7, 10:17 PMDec 31, 10:20 PM

91.57%chance

62355

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3295

304

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm and found liable for damage caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2029?

Apr 13, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.13%chance

201986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

652

Will I be sued for defamation before the end of the decade?

Jan 25, 7:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.28%chance

91455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2355

425

Will Lantern Bioworks be sued over harm caused by their Lumina treatment by the end of 2028?

Apr 10, 6:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.89%chance

251409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

775

Will Lantern Biotech get sued for over $1M by 2029?

Apr 11, 5:25 PMApr 19, 6:59 AM

35.65%chance

29989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

970

Trump is suing the gov’t for the Mar-a-Lago raid. Will the FBI fail or refuse to provide subpoenaed communications?

Aug 13, 12:35 AMAug 13, 3:59 AM

55.24%chance

4400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1111

900

Will Tainui be successful suing the government for their Maori language policy?

Jan 12, 7:19 PMOct 20, 6:59 AM

40%chance

4119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

61

41

Will the non-fiction writers suing OpenAI and Microsoft obtain class certification?

Jan 8, 2:45 PMJan 2, 9:59 PM

10.01%chance

2111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

17

Will Su-wei Hsieh win another tennis Grand Slam?

Jan 14, 5:06 AMMar 12, 1:29 PM

68.93%chance

385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

Will Ben Shapiro be criminally charged, indicted, or SEC-sued before 2040?

Oct 27, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.86%chance

465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

61

Who in the Forbes 30 Under 30 2025 list will be charged, indicted, or SEC-sued before 2040?

Dec 14, 6:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

257

OptionProbability

Oban MacTavish

Molly Mielke

Maya Kuppermann

Demi Guo

Anirudh Joshi

Rob Baldoni

Kathryn Newton

Collins Obinna Chibueze ("Shaboozey")

Peggy Wang

Gökçe Güven

Jenny Lei

Sonia Yang

Daniel Marin

Ben Nowack

Zander Isaacson

Brian Waddick

Jordan Taylor

Jayson Tatum

Jared Quincy Davis

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

Will Mark Su get >100 votes in the IL-9 Republican primary?

Jan 15, 6:06 PMMar 17, 11:59 PM

61.88%chance

244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

78

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