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Prediction markets for Substack
OptionVotes
173
58
OptionVotes
3024
331
Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?
May 2, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
84.46%chance
41363
OptionVotes
2331
429
Will Substack implement an automatic AI-generated-content filter by EoY 2026?
Aug 2, 9:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.86%chance
71277
OptionVotes
1533
653
OptionVotes
1746
586
Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025 (58)?
Jan 10, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
68.75%chance
9636
OptionVotes
1484
674
Will Scott Alexander be removed from Substack before 2030
Mar 20, 4:40 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
2.49%chance
11526
OptionVotes
712
138
OptionVotes
1226
723
In 2030, will the majority of the top 10 blogs in Substack’s Politics category be written by humans?
Feb 3, 4:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
86.56%chance
12389
OptionVotes
1202
938
@bens' Substack "The B.S. Detector" renamed "The Bullshit Detector" by 2030?
Jul 8, 5:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.56%chance
5249
OptionVotes
327
31
Will Bryan Caplan still be on substack through the end of 2034?
Feb 20, 9:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
51.77%chance
680
OptionVotes
152
103
OptionVotes
117
85