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Top stories

Comey Calls Taylor Swift Inspiration, Says Music Helps Him Cope With Trump

Comey Calls Taylor Swift Inspiration, Says Music Helps Him Cope With Trump

Authors

38

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Substack

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

Jan 8, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.84%chance

926459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

39

Will I publish 30 substacks in 2026?

Dec 20, 9:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51%chance

2216878

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Will Matt Levine have a Substack by EOY 2026?

Jan 10, 4:49 AMJan 17, 4:47 AM

26.3%chance

151119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1674

597

Will Substack have a $10B valuation by June 7, 2032?

Jun 7, 9:31 PMJun 7, 11:59 PM

24.99%chance

8914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1746

586

Will Substack cave to censorship demands before 2030?

Dec 22, 9:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.79%chance

12392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

737

In 2030, will the majority of the top 10 blogs in Substack’s Politics category be written by humans?

Feb 3, 4:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.56%chance

12389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

938

Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025?

Jan 10, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54%chance

7236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

923

will there be a Substack TV app for Fire TV?

Jan 24, 5:33 AMMay 31, 4:28 AM

40.68%chance

499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

Will Bryan Caplan still be on substack through the end of 2034?

Feb 20, 9:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.77%chance

680

OptionVotes

NO

YES

152

103

Will I write at least 12 substack posts before May 2026?

Dec 25, 5:16 AMJun 1, 4:14 AM

35.88%chance

458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

75

Substack stock (permanent)

Feb 27, 6:57 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

446

OptionProbability

NO

YES

170

106

Substack Notes Stock

May 2, 1:28 PMMay 3, 4:59 AM

11

OptionProbability

NO

YES

51

49

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