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Top stories

Comey Calls Taylor Swift Inspiration, Says Music Helps Him Cope With Trump

Comey Calls Taylor Swift Inspiration, Says Music Helps Him Cope With Trump

Authors

38

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Substack

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

Jan 8, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90%chance

1129061

OptionVotes

NO

YES

300

33

Will I publish 30 substacks in 2026?

Dec 20, 9:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.35%chance

2517224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

Will I post 2 articles on my Substack between 16Mar - 23Mar

Mar 15, 10:52 PMMar 23, 11:59 PM

30.62%chance

182738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

664

Will Matt Levine have a Substack by EOY 2026?

Jan 10, 4:49 AMJan 17, 4:47 AM

21.27%chance

161369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1924

520

Will Substack have a $10B valuation by June 7, 2032?

Jun 7, 9:31 PMJun 7, 11:59 PM

24.99%chance

8914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1746

586

Will Substack cave to censorship demands before 2030?

Dec 22, 9:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.79%chance

12392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

737

In 2030, will the majority of the top 10 blogs in Substack’s Politics category be written by humans?

Feb 3, 4:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.56%chance

12389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

938

Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025?

Jan 10, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54%chance

7236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

923

will there be a Substack TV app for Fire TV?

Jan 24, 5:33 AMMay 31, 4:28 AM

40.68%chance

499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

Will Substack be bought by another company or cease operating by the end of 2028?

Apr 2, 5:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.18%chance

381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

176

145

Will Substack IPO before the end of 2026?

May 3, 2:02 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.44%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

Substack stock (permanent)

Feb 27, 6:57 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

446

OptionProbability

NO

YES

170

106

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