Succession News

By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?

Jun 8, 1:42 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

98250417

OptionProbability

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

9.23%chance

121233554

OptionVotes

YES

2831

991

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

54.71%chance

488660

OptionVotes

YES

1219

759

[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.62%chance

358078

OptionVotes

YES

5386

4337

Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2100?

Oct 30, 12:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.76%chance

836178

OptionVotes

YES

1331

1135

Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?

Oct 16, 11:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.77%chance

515945

OptionVotes

YES

1795

639

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.76%chance

725643

OptionVotes

YES

6181

6090

Will humans successfully land on Mars within the next 30 years?

Oct 10, 5:04 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

69%chance

412671

OptionVotes

YES

1015

894

Will NASA's Artemis 3 mission be successful?

Dec 10, 7:12 AMDec 17, 10:59 AM

80%chance

181489

OptionVotes

YES

601

101

Will there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ?

Mar 8, 2:27 PMDec 16, 2:59 AM

40.49%chance

21686

OptionVotes

YES

1063

947

What actions will I take to improve my dog run's chances at success?

Jan 16, 12:45 AMJul 1, 11:42 PM

368

OptionProbability

Try to meet a county board member

Post flyers with QR code for a signup sheet to show community interest

Scout out locations besides Quincy Park

Will a major Middle Eastern nation successfully detonate a nuclear device before the end of 2027?

Apr 13, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

The 4-stage escalation trap and which stage we're at now

Iran's nuclear strategy — how many weapons, test detonation logic, timeline

Global power shifts — China, Russia, Iran as a combined bloc vs. the US

Oil control — Iran + Russia potentially controlling 30% of world oil supply

Trump's options — ground troops, oil fields, the deal with Israel containment

NATO's future — whether Article 5 still has any real meaning

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Prediction markets for Succession

Prediction markets for Succession

By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2100?

Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Will humans successfully land on Mars within the next 30 years?

Will NASA's Artemis 3 mission be successful?

Will there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ?

What actions will I take to improve my dog run's chances at success?

Will a major Middle Eastern nation successfully detonate a nuclear device before the end of 2027?

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