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Prediction markets for Succession

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

8%chance

117231827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3197

957

By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?

Jun 8, 1:42 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

90225351

OptionProbability

20

15

14

13

12

6

8

10

7

9

11

89

52

34

19

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Trump successfully appeal the hush money case?

Apr 17, 12:57 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

76.69%chance

7140773

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1839

253

Will SpaceX successfully catch the Starship upper stage in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)

Jan 1, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

0.11%chance

2833347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30120

33

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

44.56%chance

477663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

957

Will SpaceX launch a reused Super Heavy rocket booster successfully by the end of 2025?

Jun 21, 12:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

0.74%chance

246689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

9

Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2100?

Oct 30, 12:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.76%chance

836178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

1135

Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?

Oct 16, 11:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.63%chance

485495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1473

733

Will Silicon Valley still be the world's most successful tech hub in 2050?

Jan 7, 11:36 PMJan 13, 4:59 AM

59.88%chance

482947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1132

887

Will humans successfully land on Mars within the next 30 years?

Oct 10, 5:04 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

69%chance

412671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

894

Will NASA's Artemis 3 mission be successful?

Dec 10, 7:12 AMDec 17, 10:59 AM

80%chance

16929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

537

Will there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ?

Mar 8, 2:27 PMDec 16, 2:59 AM

39.42%chance

21668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

929

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