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Prediction markets for Succession

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

15%chance

114226036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

1122

By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?

Jun 8, 1:42 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

80156184

OptionProbability

20

15

12

10

6

8

7

9

88

48

32

1

0

0

0

0

Will Trump successfully appeal the hush money case?

Apr 17, 12:57 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

42.89%chance

7037624

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

700

Will SpaceX successfully catch the Starship upper stage in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)

Jan 1, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.39%chance

2026353

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2789

359

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

44.56%chance

477663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

957

Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2100?

Oct 30, 12:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49%chance

796013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1325

1141

Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?

Oct 16, 11:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.25%chance

475345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1323

790

Will Elon Musk successfully defeat at least 5 Republicans in 2026?

Jun 8, 1:32 AMNov 11, 11:59 PM

22.44%chance

423595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1861

539

Will Silicon Valley still be the world's most successful tech hub in 2050?

Jan 7, 11:36 PMJan 13, 4:59 AM

62.86%chance

482897

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

837

Will humans successfully land on Mars within the next 30 years?

Oct 10, 5:04 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

69%chance

412671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

894

Will NASA's Artemis 3 mission be successful?

Dec 10, 7:12 AMDec 17, 10:59 AM

80%chance

15879

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

537

Will there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ?

Mar 8, 2:27 PMDec 16, 2:59 AM

39.42%chance

21668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

929

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