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Prediction markets for Succession

By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?

Jun 8, 1:42 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

105254113

OptionProbability

20

16

15

14

13

6

8

10

12

7

9

11

84

45

33

15

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

6%chance

125234855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4062

893

[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.03%chance

4916659

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10296

3961

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

55%chance

488666

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

754

What actions will I take to improve my dog run's chances at success?

Jan 16, 12:45 AMJul 1, 11:42 PM

47568

OptionProbability

Post flyers with QR code for a signup sheet to show community interest

Try to meet a county board member

Scout out locations besides Quincy Park

16

16

16

Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?

Oct 16, 11:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.7%chance

526741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2591

496

Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2100?

Oct 30, 12:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.76%chance

836178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

1135

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.76%chance

725643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6181

6090

Will Manifold successfully predict the next pandemic at least 2 weeks in advance?

May 18, 6:49 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

59.71%chance

143301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12173

8215

Will humans successfully land on Mars within the next 30 years?

Oct 10, 5:04 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

69%chance

412671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

894

Will NASA's Artemis 3 mission be successful?

Dec 10, 7:12 AMDec 17, 10:59 AM

80%chance

181489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

601

101

Will there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ?

Mar 8, 2:27 PMDec 16, 2:59 AM

41.94%chance

23874

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

972

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