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Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)

Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)

Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time

Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes

Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human

Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year

Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)

Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)

Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)

Solve novel cryptic crossword clues

Name every [metro system] station whose name contains/doesn't contain [letter or letters], with >95% accuracy (excluding weird edge cases like stations with multiple names)

Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time

Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated

Write a somewhat original, full length, screen-play with a coherent story, with no plot or continuity errors.

Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)

Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user

Make correct Truchet tiles

1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human

Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)

Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools

Fold a paper airplane

Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human

Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".

Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.

Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public

teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson

Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)

Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance

Kettle-stitching an antiquarian book - Hilarius Bookbinder

Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed

Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission

independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year

Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)

voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold

Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved

Faster than light travel

YES

YES

2026

2027 or later

2025

Audiobook narration indistinguishable from human

Solve all fresh Sudoku puzzles >99% of the time (LLMs only)

Consistently win games of "Diplomacy" against experienced players online

Improvise and perform professional-level stand-up comedy routines

2026-

2027

2028

2031+

2029