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Sudoku News

    Prediction markets for Sudoku

    OptionProbability

    Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)

    Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time

    Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)

    Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human

    Solve novel cryptic crossword clues

    Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)

    Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)

    Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year

    Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes

    Name every [metro system] station whose name contains/doesn't contain [letter or letters], with >95% accuracy (excluding weird edge cases like stations with multiple names)

    Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)

    Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user

    Write a somewhat original, full length, screen-play with a coherent story, with no plot or continuity errors.

    Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated

    Fold a paper airplane

    Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)

    Make correct Truchet tiles

    Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)

    Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".

    1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human

    Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human

    Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools

    teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

    Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)

    Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.

    Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public

    Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time

    Kettle-stitching an antiquarian book - Hilarius Bookbinder

    Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance

    Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed

    Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

    independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year

    Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission

    Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson

    Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved

    Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)

    Kill everyone - Liron

    Faster than light travel

    voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold

    100

    100

    92

    90

    87

    87

    85

    85

    84

    84

    73

    72

    71

    70

    68

    62

    59

    53

    47

    46

    45

    43

    40

    36

    33

    30

    21

    20

    17

    15

    9

    9

    9

    7

    6

    5

    4

    3

    2

    Video generation model solves Sudoku puzzles by EOY 2026?

    Sep 28, 6:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    21.53%chance
    182029

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1357

    90

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1112

    299

    OptionProbability

    2026

    2027 or later

    2025

    2024

    97

    2

    1

    0

    OptionProbability

    Audiobook narration indistinguishable from human

    Solve all fresh Sudoku puzzles >99% of the time (LLMs only)

    Consistently win games of "Diplomacy" against experienced players online

    Improvise and perform professional-level stand-up comedy routines

    Write a script to a prompt that is made into a "Certified Fresh" movie on Rotten Tomatoes

    97

    91

    73

    40

    30

    OptionProbability

    2026-

    2027

    2028

    2031+

    2029

    2030

    26

    25

    20

    17

    7

    5

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