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Prediction markets for Suffs

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 16, 11:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.15%chance

8011179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2863

1138

Will the mostly self-sufficient Moon colony exist by 2100?

Jan 2, 10:06 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

45.83%chance

264113

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

834

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

434062

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Will the switch from 100LL (leaded aviation gas) to 100UL (unleaded aviation gas) cause small airports to become a thing of the past due to a lack of sufficient revenue?

Nov 18, 8:32 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

77.35%chance

113705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

973

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which net AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 17, 12:03 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.18%chance

151754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

652

Will wild-animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue by the beginning of 2100?

Mar 26, 1:03 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.66%chance

351469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

978

Did Luigi Mangione suffer from some degree of erectile dysfunction related to his back surgery?

Dec 10, 4:45 AMDec 17, 6:59 AM

43.58%chance

181041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

882

Is 1,000 atoms ever sufficient for the experience of suffering, under any design or any circumstance? (Upgradable KBC, resolves in 2025)

Feb 6, 3:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.07%chance

231034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1695

814

Will there be a year, before 2030, in which net AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 17, 12:01 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.08%chance

121034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

816

Will meat from animals that have been bred to feel little or no suffering be commercially available by 2044?

Feb 14, 6:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.45%chance

30807

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

950

Wild-animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue by 2100, conditional on biological humans still existing

Jan 29, 5:14 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

55.22%chance

22530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

931

Will Apple’s FSKit be sufficient to implement a read-write OpenZFS port on macOS by End of 2026?

Sep 21, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

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