Summary Judgment News

The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.

Grok 5 will be released

Anthropic releases Claude 5

Schmidhuber will complain about people not citing his work properly

Zvi will write a blog post mentioning SSI

Dario Amodei will continuously be CEO of Anthropic until the end of the year

Jensen Huang continuously CEO of Nvidia through EOY 2026

I will think that computer use has significantly improved since 2025

Ilya Sutskever will be on a podcast for more than 30 mins

Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.

OpenAI will introduce ads to ChatGPT in some form

Ilya Sutskever will continuously be CEO of SSI until the end of the year

Yudkowsky will publish a post on Lesswrong

Chatgpt will write an explicit sex story without jailbreaks

Google will outperform the S&P

Microsoft+Google+Amazon+Meta capex will increase by >=30% vs 2025

SSI will have an update listed at https://ssi.inc/updates

I will think that METR time horizon continues to be an important benchmark

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $1T

Thinking Machines will train and release their own model

The METR time horizon will exceed 20 hours

Anthropic IPO

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $1,000/month.

OpenAI releases GPT-6

I will meet someone who has an AI companion

Nvidia will outperform the S&P

OpenAI will announce some kind of hardware product

I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning

SSI will raise >= $1B in a funding round

OpenAI IPO

FrontierMath Tier 1-3 >= 80%

I will ride on a tesla robotaxi

I will think that there has been significant progress towards models which use neuralese/recurrence

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-4

At least 3 people will do an anti-AI hunger strike

Anthropic will release an image/video model

My median ASI timelines will shorten

Yann Lecun’s AMI lab will release an open weights model of some kind

An LLM will beat me at chess

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 170

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] will be acquired

Metaculus will predict AGI before 2030

Thinking machines will post at least 10 blog posts at https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/

The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china

Any of [OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Anthropic, xAI, Meta] claim to have reached AGI

The METR time horizon will exceed 40 hours

SSI will raise >=$10B in a funding round

Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy

There will be a credible leak about SSI strategy

xAI IPO

My P(doom) at EOY (resolves to %)

US unemployment rate reaches 10% due in part to AI

I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting

Grok 6 will be released

AAA with LLM powered NPCs releases on Steam

SSI will release a product

There will be an international treaty/agreement centered on AI

An LLM will beat me at Shogi

There will be clear evidence of egregious scheming in the wild

Anthropic releases Claude 6

There will be federal AI Safety legislation which I think is net positive

SSI will be valued at >= $100B

The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked

FrontierMath Tier 4 >= 80%

I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 185

The bubble collapses in devastating fashion

An open source model will top the Chatbot Arena in the 'text' category

There will be an AI capabilities pause lasting at least a month involving frontier companies

There will be an AI protest involving more than 100k people

ARC-AGI 3 Semi-private >= 50%

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $10,000/month.

SSI IPO

An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters

OpenAI will sell their own chips to external customers

I will think that a model released by Meta is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

I will watch a fully AI-generated film lasting at least an hour

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $5T

An AGI lab will be fined >= $10B

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] releases an LLM (general-purpose or code-only) pretrained largely on licensed data

An open millennium prize problem is solved, involving some AI assistance

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e27 FLOP according to Epoch AI

China will invade Taiwan according to metaculus

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 200

S&P 500 will fall by more than 50%

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-5

S&P 500 will rise by more than 50%

Anthropic will introduce ads to Claude in some form

I will think that SSI has the best coding model in the world for a period of at least a week

Yudkowsky will publish a new book

SSI will be valued at >= $1 T

The case settles for more than $10 million before a verdict is reached.

The case settles before a verdict is reached.

New York Times wins at least $1 in damages via a verdict.

Disney sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.

NYT and OpenAI announce a partnership that goes beyond access to training data, such as the one OpenAI made with Politico.

The case appears before the Supreme Court.

Nintendo sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.

The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2026.

OpenAI wins via an outright verdict in their favor.

The case settles for more than $100 million before a verdict is reached.

New York Times wins at least $10 million in damages via a verdict.

New York Times wins at least $100 million in damages via a verdict.

New York Times wins at least $1 billion in damages via a verdict.

The Supreme Court rules in favor of The New York Times and upholds damages and compensation with a net present value of $10 million or more, but does not order GPT-4 deleted.

The Supreme Court orders GPT-4 to be deleted, or OpenAI otherwise agrees to delete GPT-4 on the basis of this case.

New York Times wins a verdict ordering GPT-4 to be deleted.

New York Times wins a verdict ordering GPT-4 to be deleted from the Supreme Court.

The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2025.

NO

YES

YES

YES

NO

NO

NO

YES

YES