Summary Judgment News

The METR time horizon will exceed 10 hours.

xAI IPO

FrontierMath Tier 1-3 >= 80%

FrontierMath Tier 4 >= 80%

Anthropic releases Claude 5

Schmidhuber will complain about people not citing his work properly

OpenAI will announce some kind of hardware product

Yudkowsky will publish a post on Lesswrong

Zvi will write a blog post mentioning SSI

Jensen Huang continuously CEO of Nvidia through EOY 2026

Thinking Machines will train and release their own model

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $1T

I will think that computer use has significantly improved since 2025

Dario Amodei will continuously be CEO of Anthropic until the end of the year

The METR time horizon will exceed 20 hours

Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.

OpenAI will introduce ads to ChatGPT in some form

Chatgpt will write an explicit sex story without jailbreaks

Microsoft+Google+Amazon+Meta capex will increase by >=30% vs 2025

Ilya Sutskever will be on a podcast for more than 30 mins

A Solid Result in FrontierMath: Open Problems is solved by AI

OpenAI releases GPT-6

Google will outperform the S&P

Grok 5 will be released

Nvidia will outperform the S&P

Ilya Sutskever will continuously be CEO of SSI until the end of the year

The METR time horizon will exceed 40 hours

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 170

Anthropic IPO

My median ASI timelines will shorten

I will think that there has been significant progress towards models which use neuralese/recurrence

I will think that there have been significant advances in continual learning

I will meet someone who has an AI companion

At least 3 people will do an anti-AI hunger strike

I will ride on a tesla robotaxi

Epoch AI will estimate that there has been a training run using more than 5e27 FLOP

OpenAI IPO

SSI will have an update listed at https://ssi.inc/updates

An LLM will beat me at chess

Metaculus will predict AGI before 2030

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $1,000/month.

There will be federal AI Safety legislation which I think is net positive

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] will be acquired

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-4

Thinking machines will post at least 10 blog posts at https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/

Yann Lecun’s AMI lab will release an open weights model of some kind

There will be a credible leak about SSI strategy

My P(doom) at EOY (resolves to %)

There will be clear evidence of egregious scheming in the wild

SSI will release a product

Any of [Coreweave, Nebius, Lambda] declare bankruptcy

There will be an international treaty/agreement centered on AI

The bubble collapses in devastating fashion

AAA with LLM powered NPCs releases on Steam

I will see a humanoid robot walking around in a non-demo setting

An open source model will be released with 5T+ total parameters

The weights of a closed source model from [OA, XAI, GDM, Anthropic] will be stolen/leaked

SSI will raise >= $1B in a funding round

The US will allow selling some sort of Blackwell chip to china

I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

I will think that METR time horizon continues to be an important benchmark

An LLM will beat me at Shogi

There will be an AI protest involving more than 100k people

An AGI lab will be valued at >= $5T

ARC-AGI 3 Semi-private >= 50%

SSI will raise >=$10B in a funding round

An open source model will top the Chatbot Arena in the 'text' category

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] releases an LLM (general-purpose or code-only) pretrained largely on licensed data

There will be an AI capabilities pause lasting at least a month involving frontier companies

An open millennium prize problem is solved, involving some AI assistance

Anthropic releases Claude 6

Any of [OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Anthropic, xAI, Meta] claim to have reached AGI

Anthropic will release a model classified as ASL-5

OpenAI will sell their own chips to external customers

I will think that a model released by Meta is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.

Grok 6 will be released

Anthropic will release an image/video model

SSI will be valued at >= $100B

I will watch a fully AI-generated film lasting at least an hour

Any of [OpenAI, xAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta] will offer a subscription plan costing >= $10,000/month.

Anthropic will introduce ads to Claude in some form

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 185

An AGI lab will be fined >= $10B

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e27 FLOP according to Epoch AI

China will invade Taiwan according to metaculus

I will think that SSI has the best coding model in the world for a period of at least a week

S&P 500 will rise by more than 50%

Largest distributed training run exceeds 1e26 FLOP

Epoch Capabilities Index >= 200

Yudkowsky will publish a new book

SSI IPO

SSI will be valued at >= $1 T

US unemployment rate reaches 10% due in part to AI

S&P 500 will fall by more than 50%

The case settles before a verdict is reached.

The case settles for more than $10 million before a verdict is reached.

New York Times wins at least $1 in damages via a verdict.

Disney sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.

NYT and OpenAI announce a partnership that goes beyond access to training data, such as the one OpenAI made with Politico.

Nintendo sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.

The case appears before the Supreme Court.

The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2026.

OpenAI wins via an outright verdict in their favor.

The case settles for more than $100 million before a verdict is reached.

New York Times wins at least $10 million in damages via a verdict.

New York Times wins at least $100 million in damages via a verdict.

New York Times wins at least $1 billion in damages via a verdict.

The Supreme Court rules in favor of The New York Times and upholds damages and compensation with a net present value of $10 million or more, but does not order GPT-4 deleted.

The Supreme Court orders GPT-4 to be deleted, or OpenAI otherwise agrees to delete GPT-4 on the basis of this case.

New York Times wins a verdict ordering GPT-4 to be deleted.

New York Times wins a verdict ordering GPT-4 to be deleted from the Supreme Court.

The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2025.

YES

YES

YES

NO

NO

NO

YES

YES