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Prediction markets for Summer

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

9.02%chance

24568669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2875

598

Will the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026?

Aug 15, 12:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.58%chance

238356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6176

739

Will the 2028 Summer Olympics be cancelled or moved out of LA?

Jun 9, 9:59 PMJul 20, 12:00 AM

6.08%chance

134728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3930

254

Will the USA get gold in Flag Football at the 2028 Summer Olympics?

Oct 17, 12:39 AMJul 22, 3:59 AM

94.08%chance

403502

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2301

834

Will the U.S. win the gold medal in Men's Basketball at the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles?

Aug 11, 1:46 AMOct 2, 4:59 AM

71.04%chance

202005

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

638

Will Tom Brady win a medal in the 2028 Summer Olympics?

Jan 16, 2:03 AMJul 30, 11:59 PM

14.55%chance

71532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2423

413

Will the USA win the most Gold medals by the end of the 2028 LA Summer Olympics?

Aug 12, 4:42 PMAug 21, 3:59 AM

86%chance

131082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1217

929

Will India win a gold medal in the men's Twenty20 Cricket at the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles?

Aug 13, 5:21 AMSep 20, 2:29 PM

57.16%chance

10847

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

140

Will either of the men’s 1500m or Mile world records be broken by the end of the 2028 Summer Olympics?

Feb 6, 2:31 PMJul 30, 11:59 PM

44.28%chance

4544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

891

Will the Arctic be ice-free in summer by the year 2050?

Apr 23, 12:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

74.35%chance

12524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

881

Which milestone occurs first: AGI deployment, Starship Mars landing, or ice-free Arctic summer?

Dec 5, 5:25 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

6210

OptionProbability

Public AGI Deployment

Ice-free Arctic Summer

SpaceX Starship Mars Landing

54

34

12

Will I Get an Internship or Job in 2026's Summer?

Mar 23, 9:34 PMSep 21, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Job

Internship

None

33

33

33

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