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Prediction markets for Summer

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

15.68%chance

24770128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1877

733

Will the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026?

Aug 15, 12:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.72%chance

238406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3790

789

Will the 2028 Summer Olympics be cancelled or moved out of LA?

Jun 9, 9:59 PMJul 20, 12:00 AM

6.08%chance

134728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3930

254

Will the USA get gold in Flag Football at the 2028 Summer Olympics?

Oct 17, 12:39 AMJul 22, 3:59 AM

94.08%chance

403502

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2301

834

Will Tom Brady win a medal in the 2028 Summer Olympics?

Jan 16, 2:03 AMJul 30, 11:59 PM

10.48%chance

82032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2923

342

Will the U.S. win the gold medal in Men's Basketball at the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles?

Aug 11, 1:46 AMOct 2, 4:59 AM

71.04%chance

202005

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

638

Will a Manifolder win the Summer Metaculus Cup

May 4, 9:42 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

34.67%chance

131137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1373

728

Will the USA win the most Gold medals by the end of the 2028 LA Summer Olympics?

Aug 12, 4:42 PMAug 21, 3:59 AM

86%chance

131082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1217

929

Will India win a gold medal in the men's Twenty20 Cricket at the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles?

Aug 13, 5:21 AMSep 20, 2:29 PM

53.47%chance

11857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

148

Will the Arctic be ice-free in summer by the year 2050?

Apr 23, 12:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73%chance

12574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

835

Will either of the men’s 1500m or Mile world records be broken by the end of the 2028 Summer Olympics?

Feb 6, 2:31 PMAug 30, 11:59 PM

45.1%chance

5559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

906

Will temperatures in Berlin, Germany, reach 40°C this summer?

Jun 13, 8:58 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

45.27%chance

7243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

909

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