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Top stories

Binance Schedules Nine Alpha Token Debuts, Spot-Lists Succinct’s PROVE on Aug 5

Binance Schedules Nine Alpha Token Debuts, Spot-Lists Succinct’s PROVE on Aug 5

Authors

10

2 days ago

Prediction markets for SUP

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.24%chance

8561819392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

34119

9563

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

60%chance

18461345051

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5315

3540

Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through December 31st, 2025?

Apr 5, 7:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.29%chance

331242051

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1980

417

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.32%chance

86134186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109153

17619

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47.9%chance

33599775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4861

3188

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?

Apr 9, 5:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

62%chance

26990888

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2692

1782

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

Apr 9, 5:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

37.67%chance

24077963

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2405

1440

Will the U.S. Supreme Court hold Trump or a member of his Cabinet in contempt?

Apr 28, 7:36 PMFeb 28, 8:36 PM

12.63%chance

2017738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26303

3802

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support unconditional cash transfers before 2027?

Dec 18, 3:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

3415050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6351

3156

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.32%chance

7312215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1435

697

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support breastfeeding promotion before 2027?

Aug 23, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.72%chance

738464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7531

3749

William Baude admitted to Supreme Court Bar by EOY2030?

Jun 7, 10:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.2%chance

6820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10578

9454

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