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Prediction markets for Superalignment

Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?

Jul 5, 9:39 PMJul 5, 9:59 PM

4%chance

6936642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3564

752

By what years will I agree that "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%”?

Jun 12, 6:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

227020

OptionProbability

2050

2040

2030

2028

2027

2026

2025

2024

61

56

49

43

35

27

12

8

Will Jan Leike still be leading Superalignment in 4 years?

Jul 6, 5:20 AMJul 8, 3:59 AM

1.03%chance

236654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3801

754

Will any country adopt a superaligned constitution by 2040?

Dec 21, 10:10 PMJan 2, 3:59 AM

36.2%chance

452598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

892

Will OpenAI publicly state that they DON'T know how to safely align a superintelligence, after 2027?

Nov 4, 12:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.98%chance

251693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1415

789

Will Superalignment succeed, according to a majority of Eliezer, Nate, Paul, John, David.

Oct 28, 5:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.57%chance

71249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

399

44

Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035

Jun 10, 1:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

10950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

801

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