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Top stories

Meta’s Superintelligence Lab Loses Eight Employees Including Rishabh Agarwal and Chaya Nayak Amid Billion-Dollar Hiring Spree

Meta’s Superintelligence Lab Loses Eight Employees Including Rishabh Agarwal and Chaya Nayak Amid Billion-Dollar Hiring Spree

Authors

17

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Superintelligence Lab

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.7%chance

14336408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5405

1263

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

17.78%chance

276710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2154

466

Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence?

Aug 18, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99%chance

161793

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

10

"Will Google DeepMind release a system where the AI itself (not human engineers) generates improvements to its own code

Nov 5, 9:15 PMDec 15, 11:59 PM

2.55%chance

11912

OptionVotes

YES

NO

618

16

When/If Will Intelligence No Longer Need Humans [THE SINGULARITY]?

Jul 24, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15700

OptionProbability

2031, later, or never

2028 - 2030 (inclusive)

2026 - 2027 (inclusive)

43

42

15

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.64%chance

643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

191

Will Meta release Muse Spark 1.4 (or any higher-numbered Muse Spark) by November 30, 2026?

Oct 31, 8:37 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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