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Prediction markets for Supernova

When will Betelgeuse go supernova?

Mar 31, 10:20 PMApr 8, 3:59 AM

238564

OptionProbability

Before 1113135

Before 113135

Before 13135

Before 3135

Before 2035

Before 2135

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

65

54

10

3

1

1

1

0

0

Will Betelgeuse go supernova before 2100?

Dec 19, 5:23 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

3.5%chance

195941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5599

466

Which star within 50k ly will go supernova next.

Aug 7, 2:15 PMAug 31, 1:59 PM

174297

OptionProbability

Other

Eta Carinae

T Coronae Borealis

Betlgeuse

WR 102

WR 142

Sher 25

HD 168625

WR30a

HD 179821 (V1427 Aquilae)

47

33

15

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will a supernova be clearly visible from Earth before 2100 by a conscious, self-aware entity?

May 17, 3:43 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62.84%chance

113842

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1300

769

Is the preprint suggesting Betelgeuse supernova within decades correct?

Jun 20, 12:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.7%chance

161969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1919

765

In the Crisis in Cosmology, the CMBR answer is closer to correct than the supernovae results

Oct 27, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.12%chance

151633

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

982

When will Betelgeuse go supernova ?

May 21, 4:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

78.33%chance

10848

OptionProbability

NO

YES

718

578

Will zeta puppis OR one of Orion's belt stars go supernova before Betelgeuse

Mar 15, 9:35 PMMar 23, 3:59 AM

14.79%chance

1140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

42

Will LSST Supernovae Ia survey find evidence of a local void with |δ|>20% at z<0.1 by EOY 2030?

Aug 26, 2:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.72%chance

3134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

79

Will Rho Cassiopeia go supernova before Betelgeuse?

Jun 10, 6:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.55%chance

5120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

124

Will Deneb go supernova before Betelgeuse?

Jun 10, 6:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.48%chance

475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

94

Will Eta Carinae go supernova before Betelgeuse?

Jun 10, 6:58 PMJun 17, 6:58 PM

71.22%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

112

43

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