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Prediction markets for Superp

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73%chance

8417347

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3626

971

Will the US Still Be Considered a Superpower by EOY 2040?

Dec 23, 2:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

68.93%chance

201449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1124

323

Will Poland become a National Superpower by the year 2040?

Jul 1, 11:49 PMDec 25, 10:59 PM

11.26%chance

13394

OptionVotes

YES

NO

281

36

If LMs store info as features in superposition, are there >300K features in GPT-2 small L7? (see desc)

May 29, 6:05 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

59.25%chance

13286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

990

Is superposition true?

Nov 26, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

46%chance

8263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

91

Will India be the superpower till 2035?

Jul 19, 6:17 AMJul 1, 6:29 PM

44.47%chance

7255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

108

Will China be the dominant economic and military superpower by 2100?

Mar 13, 6:14 PMMar 21, 6:59 AM

35.56%chance

8246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

204

Will we find polysemanticity via superposition in neurons in the brain before 2040?

Jan 21, 10:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.87%chance

4245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

96

Will "SAE feature geometry is outside the superposi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 25, 4:11 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.46%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

753

Will "Circuits in Superposition: Compressing many s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Oct 20, 9:25 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

If LMs store info as features in superposition, does # features scale superlinearly with number of model parameters?

May 29, 6:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.76%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

82

60

Will China overtake USA as a global superpower by the year 2060

Jan 18, 11:39 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

240

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