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Supervised Learning News
Prediction markets for Supervised Learning
Prediction markets for Supervised Learning
Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:04 PM
Oct 20, 9:59 PM
14.47%
chance
22
3780
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2380
283
End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026
May 5, 11:06 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
36.84%
chance
24
2303
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1098
735
GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?
Jun 1, 8:22 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
32.83%
chance
22
864
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1124
534
Will transformer architectures lose their dominant position in deep learning before 2028?
Jan 20, 9:04 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
15.95%
chance
5
145
Option
Votes
YES
NO
230
44
If GPT-5 can do recursive self-improvement, will it first be via fine-tuning on its outputs?
May 30, 5:28 PM
Nov 1, 6:59 AM
36.64%
chance
7
83
Option
Votes
YES
NO
184
121
Chance an NLP nerd with shit grades and ouchie-demograaphics for top unis
Jan 24, 6:24 AM
6
0
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