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Supreme Court News

Economist Casts Bolsonaro Coup Trial as Democracy Lesson for United States

US Foreign Policy

Economist Casts Bolsonaro Coup Trial as Democracy Lesson for United States

4

10 months ago

Will the US Supreme Court overturn gay marriage [Obergefell v. Hodges] before 2030?

Aug 22, 11:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.24%chance

12966236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20771

3683

Will the next Supreme Court justice be appointed by a Democrat?

Jul 22, 12:56 PMDec 2, 5:59 AM

16.97%chance

9941870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2244

349

Will the U.S. Supreme Court hold Trump or a member of his Cabinet in contempt?

Apr 28, 7:36 PMFeb 28, 8:36 PM

8.23%chance

2626595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33403

2994

Will a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?

Nov 9, 3:25 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

89%chance

5924910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2852

353

[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?

Jan 6, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.11%chance

4512190

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5670

3269

If Trump self-pardons, will the Supreme Court rule the action unconstitutional?

Sep 19, 12:44 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

36.91%chance

5911079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1524

406

Will Sonia Sotomayor still be on the Supreme Court at the end of 2026?

Apr 12, 5:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.53%chance

518081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6832

1349

When will the U.S. Supreme Court stop having a conservative majority?

Apr 12, 7:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

336819

OptionProbability

After 2070 (or never)

2036-2040

2029-2035

2061-2065

2041-2045

2046-2050

2066-2070

By 2028

2051-2055

2056-2060

40

18

14

10

5

3

3

2

2

2

Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?

Mar 7, 12:05 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

69.56%chance

406214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3162

2308

Will Donald Trump appoint at least 2 Supreme Court Justices during his second term?

Nov 7, 6:15 PMJan 20, 8:59 PM

32.31%chance

435053

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1447

691

William Baude admitted to Supreme Court Bar by EOY2030?

Jun 7, 10:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.49%chance

113528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10103

9898

Will the Supreme Court issue a merits decision that limits or overturns state or local rent-control laws before 2030?

Nov 23, 1:47 AMJan 2, 1:46 AM

33.02%chance

8850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2129

1474

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