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Prediction markets for Surface
[ACX 2026] What will the average global surface air temperature be in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?
Jan 7, 12:00 AMJan 7, 7:59 AM
118197
OptionProbability
40
22
22
6
5
2
1
1
Will NASA's Europa Clipper discover organic compounds either in plumes or on the surface?
Oct 18, 1:06 AMOct 15, 3:59 AM
83.17%chance
191530
OptionVotes
2223
450
The next American mission that lands a human on the surface of the Moon won't involve SLS
Apr 20, 1:05 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
47.4%chance
221507
OptionVotes
1173
747
Will Ohio billionaire Larry Connor go to 'Titanic-level depths' and go back to the surface alive by EOY 2030 ?
May 28, 10:51 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM
75.29%chance
61260
OptionVotes
1745
573
Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?
Jun 10, 2:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
56.51%chance
211148
OptionVotes
1140
877
Will a human control in real time a humanoid robot on the surface of Mars before 2040 using VR technology?
Apr 22, 2:06 AMJan 5, 3:59 PM
30%chance
10988
OptionVotes
1101
424
Will any state claim part of the Moon's surface as its sovereign territory before 2040?
Dec 11, 8:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
51.86%chance
21764
OptionVotes
1164
804
Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?
Jul 11, 3:56 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
46.48%chance
13493
OptionVotes
1100
866
Will an American Astronaut and a Chinese Taikonaut shake hands on the surface of the moon before 2035?
Apr 29, 12:24 AMDec 31, 4:05 PM
15.65%chance
8466
OptionVotes
226
119
Will humans land on Mars and lift off from its surface to an altitude of at least 10 km by 2041?
Aug 7, 5:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
38.77%chance
11305
OptionVotes
204
178
Will the first human habitat on Mars be on the surface?
Nov 10, 4:25 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
87.17%chance
13251
OptionVotes
1183
947
Will the first 10 person, 1 year human habitat on Mars be on the surface?
Nov 10, 6:48 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
66.56%chance
10126
OptionVotes
1100
940