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Prediction markets for Surya
Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?
Dec 10, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
71671
OptionProbability
100
66
25
24
24
23
23
23
23
23
22
21
21
21
20
19
18
18
18
18
17
16
15
14
13
2028 US election: peaceful transfer of power to a non-authoritarian leader?
Jul 13, 11:18 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM
75.36%chance
151365
OptionVotes
1749
572