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[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?

Nov 16, 12:06 AMSep 18, 3:59 AM

349153

OptionProbability

[AAA] At least 1 market resolves to YES.

[AA] At least 2 markets resolve to YES.

[A] At least 3 markets resolve to YES.

[BBB] At least 4 markets resolve to YES.

[BB] At least 5 markets resolve to YES.

[B] At least 6 markets resolve to YES.

[CCC] At least 7 markets resolve to YES.

[CC] At least 8 markets resolve to YES.

[C] At least 9 markets resolve to YES.

[D] At least 10 markets resolve to YES.

100

100

56

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Trump attempt to swap with of his kids in as nominee after he is officially selected?

Sep 13, 9:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.02%chance

214221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3391

876

Will the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?

May 11, 2:28 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

4%chance

62603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10090

7489

Who will win The Bacheloret: Swansong

Jun 2, 12:08 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

132333

OptionProbability

Other

Kerem of Loegria

Ned Kirsch

Julien Doucet

Svetka Ignatyeva

Markus Vaughn

Zane

D.1E.1A

Beaufort Steill

Izzy Swan

Ellie Mitchell

Eugene Cullen

Rebecca Arden

Ivan Xav Vorpatril

Chelsea Dawning

Adelaide "Addy" Bauer | Imperial Factotum

46

10

8

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

Dyson Swarm reaches Earth's current energy generation level before CA High-Speed Rail is complete?

Sep 2, 5:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.43%chance

81188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1624

105

Will autonomous drone swarms kill over a thousand soldiers by the end of the Ukraine-Russia War?

Feb 8, 3:32 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

39.06%chance

241137

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1184

561

Will my multi agent orchestration tool SWARM gain more than 100 stars on github by EOY?

Sep 27, 2:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.74%chance

4957

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1792

558

The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Drone Swarm Assassinate a Public Figure by 2040?

Feb 8, 12:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.86%chance

18645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1486

724

Will Eric Swalwell be behind bars on Election Day 2028?

Apr 12, 8:55 PMNov 7, 11:59 PM

14.86%chance

19635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

507

101

Will there be a presidential "ticket swap" before 2048?

Nov 29, 5:45 PMNov 11, 11:59 PM

4.76%chance

6550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

447

22

Will something AI-related top the OpenAI swarm incidents by Thanksgiving?

Sep 7, 9:05 PMNov 25, 11:59 PM

35.59%chance

6106

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

65

In 5 years, swapping mouth bacteria will be seen as a feasible idea (resolves to poll)

Sep 24, 5:48 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

61.7%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

85

58

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