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Ron Weasley is a redhead

Harry Potter is white

At least one named character from the book has their race changed

Snape is black

Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British

A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)

McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)

Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"

Premieres in 2027

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode

Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him

Malfoy has white blonde hair

Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)

JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer

Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen

Fred and George are twins irl

Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"

The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured

Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes

There’s a scene set before Harry is born

Arthur Weasley is shown on screen

Peeves is a reoccurring character

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2

An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show

Hermione is white

mandrake root on screen

A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry

80% or higher on rotten tomatoes

A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen

Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen

A house elf is shown on screen

Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name

Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot

It ends on a cliff hanger

The Quibbler is shown or mentioned

It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year

At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped

Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode

Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures

Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits

An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen

It's woke

The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.

The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3

Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s

Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings

"Voldemort" has a silent "t"

90% or higher on rotten tomatoes

The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode

At least one of the actors is transgender

VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE

Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting

Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)

We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts

Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1

We get AGI before it premieres

Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1

Premieres in 2026

Features an explicitly transgender character

Fred and George have the same actor

JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance

Hermione is black

Smartphone shown within Hogwarts

Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity

Hermione is Indian

Voldemort is a woman

Yudkowsky makes an appearance

HPMOR is referenced

One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.

Make the bread taste good

Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

Use sourdough instead of yeast

Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

Watch the video

Autolyse 20 minutes

3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

Bake it with your best friend.

Add 50g honey

Swap 200ml water for milk

Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

Use 50% whole grain flour

Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

Toast the bread

Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

Throw the bread at a telescope

Add 50g sugar

Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

replace 10% of flour with farina bona

Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

Add 50g vital wheat gluten

Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

Add a pinch of sugar

Make the bread edible then throw it in

Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

Increase water by 50 g

Drink vodka while eating the bread

Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

Do FOLDED

Quit Manifold into the bread.

Kill the bread into Manifold.

Improve the bread

Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

it needs more salt

Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

Half yeast

Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

Add 2g? of baking soda

Let dough sit 48 hrs

Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

put butter into it

Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

Add a tablespoon of sugar

Bake for 5 fewer minutes

Bake one more minute

Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

Quadruple salt

Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

Bake one fewer minute

Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

Bake vegimite into it.

Use lemonade instead of water.

Bake for 5 more minutes

Replace salt with sugar

Eat the bread in front of the White House.

Bake vodka into it

Implement all options that resolved NO

Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

Replace flour with flowers

Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

Think positive thoughts before tasting

Make the bread great again

Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

Implementing every element listed below.

Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

Just make donuts instead

Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

Use a plastic baking sheet.

Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

Double oven temperature

Halve oven temperature

Play classical music while baking

Light it on fire with birthday candles.

Bake it with a microwave

Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

Wear a suit while baking the cake.

Bake your social security number into it.

Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

Bake America Great Again

Sacrifice a lamb

Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

Bake in a cat and a dog

Explode it:

Take a fat dump in the dough

Sit in dough 24 hrs

Let dough sit 24 hrs

Bake in rectangular tin

double yeast

halve salt

Double salt

Add 2tsp olive oil

Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

Put fork in microwave

Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

Eat the bread with friends

Bake it in the country you were born in.

Eat the bread over the course of a week.

@Tumbles

@amitiscoo

@jim

@evan

@spiderduckpig

@Bayesian

@robincvgr

[AAA] At least 1 market resolves to YES.

[AA] At least 2 markets resolve to YES.

[A] At least 3 markets resolve to YES.

[BBB] At least 4 markets resolve to YES.

[BB] At least 5 markets resolve to YES.

[B] At least 6 markets resolve to YES.

[CCC] At least 7 markets resolve to YES.

[CC] At least 8 markets resolve to YES.

[C] At least 9 markets resolve to YES.

YES

Idols (hidden individual immunity, whether found at camp, obtained through beware advantages, journeys, or otherwise)

Live Finale and Reunion Show in LA (YES) / Winner Reveal and After show in Fiji (NO)

Tribe Swap (YES) / No Tribe Swap (NO)

Start with rice (YES) / Make them earn rice (NO)

Lots of twists (YES) / Straightforward game (NO)

Final Four Challenge: Option C (Simmotion; the ball track one)

Advantages: Dynamic Power

Advantages: Minimal Power

Advantages: Strategic Power

Final Four Challenge: Option A (Plinko + Puzzle)

Final Four Fire Making (YES) / Final four elimination decided by vote (NO)

@jim

@bagelfan

@evan

YES

NO

By 2026-01-01

By 2024-04-01

By 2024-07-01

NO

NO