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Top stories

Apple Taps Samsung’s Texas Plant for iPhone 18 Image Sensors

Apple Taps Samsung’s Texas Plant for iPhone 18 Image Sensors

Authors

16

1 day ago

Prediction markets for System

Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?

Feb 3, 2:59 PMDec 31, 10:00 AM

33.36%chance

26243164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7001

1909

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of...

Dec 5, 2:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1839309

OptionProbability

Medium or higher on Cybersecurity

Medium or higher on Model Autonomy

High or higher on CBRN

High or higher on Persuasion

100

100

65

45

will human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?

Nov 7, 12:59 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

33.35%chance

2720656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6224

5524

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.45%chance

4719184

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1306

760

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

Apr 26, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

84%chance

14011901

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2670

1441

Before 2026, Will DL systems outperform humans at describing a picture in words to make human mental images match it?

Jun 19, 12:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33%chance

134578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.81%chance

114493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10081

9577

Will gmail or outlook have a "persuasion detection system" built into their email services by 2025 end?

Apr 23, 12:36 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

17%chance

674019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1943

1128

Will Twitter suffer an unrecoverable system failure by the end of 2025?

Mar 25, 8:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.41%chance

343805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2315

774

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.93%chance

723463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

1187

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4652

3621

Is there extraterrestrial life within 10 light years from the solar system?

Feb 11, 3:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.71%chance

10359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

92

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 7, 2025
Aug 7, 2025
Texas
Business
Tech
Apple Taps Samsung’s Texas Plant for iPhone 18 Image Sensors
Authors
16
1 day ago

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