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Prediction markets for System

Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?

Feb 3, 2:59 PMDec 31, 10:00 AM

3.11%chance

26857443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18442

322

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of...

Dec 5, 2:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1846364

OptionProbability

Medium or higher on Cybersecurity

Medium or higher on Model Autonomy

High or higher on CBRN

High or higher on Persuasion

100

100

19

14

will human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?

Nov 7, 12:59 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

32.8%chance

2820756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6324

5475

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.44%chance

4719284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

860

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

Apr 26, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

84.05%chance

14111909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2678

1439

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.81%chance

114493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10081

9577

Will Twitter suffer an unrecoverable system failure by the end of 2025?

Mar 25, 8:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.41%chance

343805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2315

774

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.93%chance

723463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

1187

US government builds first AGI-level system?

Nov 20, 5:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.48%chance

243431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2100

476

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.3%chance

271379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

880

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4652

3621

Is there extraterrestrial life within 10 light years from the solar system?

Feb 11, 3:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.71%chance

10359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

92

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