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Prediction markets for System

will human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?

Nov 7, 12:59 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

32.8%chance

2820756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6324

5475

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.44%chance

4719284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

860

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8516354

OptionProbability

Palantir

Other

xAI

OpenAI

Anthropic

Anduril

Google

Facebook

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Mistral

17

17

13

13

10

10

7

6

5

1

1

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

Apr 26, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

87.72%chance

14312669

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3353

1329

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36%chance

125493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10577

9472

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43%chance

284981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

923

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.09%chance

764157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1304

1066

1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.

Mar 8, 4:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

413738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

629

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.3%chance

271379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

880

Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Apr 2, 10:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.13%chance

19957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

927

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4652

3621

Is there extraterrestrial life within 10 light years from the solar system?

Feb 11, 3:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.71%chance

10359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

92

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