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Prediction markets for System

will human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?

Nov 7, 12:59 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

33.92%chance

2820856

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6124

5575

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.44%chance

4819304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

860

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8616676

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Palantir

Other

xAI

Anthropic

Anduril

Google

DeepSeek

Facebook

Alibaba

Mistral

16

16

15

14

11

10

7

6

4

1

1

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

Apr 26, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

86.98%chance

14712760

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3192

1353

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.09%chance

179858

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13202

6235

AI takes down a major payment system by EOY 2027?

Jun 26, 7:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.38%chance

749256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6266

5717

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30.73%chance

764207

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1281

1116

Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

51.59%chance

71364

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10323

9687

Will Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

52.22%chance

41124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10045

9959

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4652

3621

Will OpenAI and Anthropic both have moved off Unix-based operating systems by end of 2027?

Nov 6, 12:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45%chance

16782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

351

171

Is there extraterrestrial life within 10 light years from the solar system?

Feb 11, 3:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.71%chance

10359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

92

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