System Card News

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Jun 17, 4:16 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

1615614

OptionProbability

It will have a new character (not just a revision or morph)

It will be released first in 2025

In mid 2026 there wil lbe more concurrent players on StS 2 than on StS 1

Jorbs will play it on twitch live in the first week of release

There will be some game mechanic like ascension levels but they will go higher or take more steps than sts1's ascension 20

The final boss will be the heart (or some obvious natural evolution of that character)

It will have four playable characters on release

All current cards for at least one character will be playable

It will be released first in 2024

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

Oct 5, 10:21 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

87.82%chance

426398

OptionVotes

YES

1350

901

Trump Legal Immigration Action During Second Term (What actions in bills/executive orders will be taken before 2029?)

Nov 14, 5:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45095

OptionProbability

A STEM master's graduate automatically receives an H1B visa or green card

A STEM master's graduate automatically receives a green card

Where will I work on 2025-11-01?

Nov 1, 2:20 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

102050

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Other

Google DeepMind

Alphabet but not Google DeepMind

Anthropic

xAI

I will not be employed

The Center for Humane Technology

Protocol Labs

Center for AI Safety

Alignment Research Center

MIRI

Future of Life Institute

Ought

METR

AI Safety Institute

WIkimedia Foundation

Mozilla Foundation

OpenStreetMap Foundation

Is the biblical depiction of the mark during the apocalyptic times a faithful representation of what appears to be ...

Jan 12, 11:11 AMJan 12, 9:59 PM

3.23%chance

131191

OptionVotes

YES

1785

907

Will TAG Grading overtake PSA as the biggest collectible authenticator before the end of 2025?

Feb 27, 11:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.59%chance

262

OptionVotes

YES

162

Will "The o1 System Card Is Not About o1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Dec 15, 5:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

100

System Card News

Prediction markets for System Card

Prediction markets for System Card

Prediction markets for System Card

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

Trump Legal Immigration Action During Second Term (What actions in bills/executive orders will be taken before 2029?)

Where will I work on 2025-11-01?

Is the biblical depiction of the mark during the apocalyptic times a faithful representation of what appears to be ...

Will TAG Grading overtake PSA as the biggest collectible authenticator before the end of 2025?

Will "The o1 System Card Is Not About o1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

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