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System Card News

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

Oct 5, 10:21 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

88.8%chance

438013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1460

886

Trump Legal Immigration Action During Second Term (What actions in bills/executive orders will be taken before 2029?)

Nov 14, 5:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65359

OptionProbability

A STEM master's graduate automatically receives an H1B visa or green card

A STEM master's graduate automatically receives a green card

15

11

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4.17%chance

144554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4791

209

How long after launch will BritCard™ suffer it's first significant data breach?

Sep 26, 4:46 AMDec 31, 2:45 AM

123424

OptionProbability

Card does not launch before end of 2026.

No data breach within the first 12 months.

Within the calendar month of launch.

The first full month after launch

Month 2-3 after launch.

Month 4-6.

Month 7-12.

84

5

3

3

2

2

2

Will Anthropic release a system card of a model at a new frontier of intellegence by August 31st?

Jun 14, 2:59 PMAug 30, 11:59 PM

53.54%chance

111536

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

932

Is the biblical depiction of the mark during the apocalyptic times a faithful representation of what appears to be ...

Jan 12, 11:11 AMJan 12, 9:59 PM

3.23%chance

131191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1785

907

Will the Nicholas Funk vs PSA RICO lawsuit get dismissed?

Aug 5, 6:26 AMDec 31, 6:30 AM

78.41%chance

2410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1363

876

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

May 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.39%chance

7364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

419

24

Will OpenAI classify any model as "Critical" capability under its Preparedness Framework before Oct 1, 2026?

Aug 8, 5:44 AMOct 1, 4:00 AM

44.02%chance

652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

26

Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27?

Apr 14, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.44%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

92

The Business Benefits of Mobile Entertainment Attractions

Aug 5, 10:18 AMDec 31, 10:17 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Two+ of OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepMind adopt new MonitorBench for monitor-aware evasion by '27?

Apr 14, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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