System Card News

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

Oct 5, 10:21 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

93.17%chance

459025

OptionVotes

YES

2289

807

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8.77%chance

156407

OptionVotes

YES

3224

310

Trump Legal Immigration Action During Second Term (What actions in bills/executive orders will be taken before 2029?)

Nov 14, 5:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65359

OptionProbability

A STEM master's graduate automatically receives an H1B visa or green card

A STEM master's graduate automatically receives a green card

How long after launch will BritCard™ suffer it's first significant data breach?

Sep 26, 4:46 AMDec 31, 2:45 AM

134674

OptionProbability

Card does not launch before end of 2026.

Within the calendar month of launch.

Month 2-3 after launch.

Month 4-6.

Month 7-12.

No data breach within the first 12 months.

The first full month after launch

anthropic model release prop bets

Sep 23, 7:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

203448

OptionProbability

Haiku 5.5 gets 35+ on AA

Sonnet 5.5 is released in September

Sonnet 5.5 ranks above gpt 5.6 sol on terminal bench 4.0

sonnet 5.5 ranks worse than sonnet 5 on at least 1 benchmark in the system card

haiku 5.5 is released before october 15th

Fable 5.5 is released in 2026

Fable 5.5 is the top model on Artificial analysis when it releases

reset when fable 5.5 is released

Opus 5.6 releases in november

fable 5.5 is over 75% on terminal bench 4.0

fable 5.5 releases before November 16th

fable 5.5 is over 85% on deepswe

Fable 5.2 is released in 2026

claude hands out a weekly reset when they drop either haiku 5.5 or sonnet 5.5

sonnet or haiku 5.5 are dropped on a weekend

sonnet 5.5 become only accessable on paid plans

haiku 5.5 is ranked above fable 5.1 in terminalbench4.0

haiku 5.5 is ranked higher than gpt 6 astra on artifical analysis

Fable 5.5 is released before 10/16/2026

100

Is the biblical depiction of the mark during the apocalyptic times a faithful representation of what appears to be ...

Jan 12, 11:11 AMJan 12, 9:59 PM

3.23%chance

131191

OptionVotes

YES

1785

907

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

May 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

8940

OptionVotes

YES

995

Will the Nicholas Funk vs PSA RICO lawsuit get dismissed?

Aug 5, 6:26 AMDec 31, 6:30 AM

78.41%chance

2410

OptionVotes

YES

1363

876

Next Sonnet model to top AECI

Sep 28, 9:11 PMSep 30, 9:03 PM

4407

OptionProbability

None by Sonnet 6.5

6.5

5.6

5.7

5.8

6.1

6.2

6.3

5.9

6.4

Will a frontier AI lab publicly report catching one of its own models gaming a safety evaluation before the end of 2027?

Oct 30, 4:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76%chance

496

OptionVotes

YES

178

Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27?

Apr 14, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.44%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

Will any frontier AI lab publicly commit to a Human Preservation constraint in model architecture before 2029?

Oct 21, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

System Card News

Prediction markets for System Card

Prediction markets for System Card

Prediction markets for System Card

Will AI be passable at answering Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Trump Legal Immigration Action During Second Term (What actions in bills/executive orders will be taken before 2029?)

How long after launch will BritCard™ suffer it's first significant data breach?

anthropic model release prop bets

Is the biblical depiction of the mark during the apocalyptic times a faithful representation of what appears to be ...

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

Will the Nicholas Funk vs PSA RICO lawsuit get dismissed?

Next Sonnet model to top AECI

Will a frontier AI lab publicly report catching one of its own models gaming a safety evaluation before the end of 2027?

Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27?

Will any frontier AI lab publicly commit to a Human Preservation constraint in model architecture before 2029?

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