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Prediction markets for Tablets

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

25.33%chance

11415508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1992

610

Will Apple announce a foldable phone or tablet before 2027?

Jul 27, 11:26 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

68.45%chance

536506

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1313

810

By when will USB-C no longer be the standard charger for the EU?

Dec 30, 8:06 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

54100

OptionProbability

2040

Other

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2029

2028

2025

2026

2027

21

7

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

5

4

1

1

1

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

51.46%chance

12934

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

975

AI that teaches you how to draw by 2035?

Sep 19, 6:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

92.67%chance

8561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

499

77

Will Apple officially support macOS on an iPad, or other tablet computer, by the end of 2030?

May 10, 12:31 PMDec 31, 1:59 PM

17.75%chance

4420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

746

172

Will Daylight Computers Release a second generation of the DC-1 tablet before 2028?

May 24, 6:43 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

63.38%chance

7321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1316

760

Will US or Canadian flights stop making me put away my laptop during takeoff and landing before 2030?

Dec 12, 11:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.23%chance

14291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1179

937

Movies I bought on YouTube stay available through mid 2029

Apr 16, 5:32 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

75.71%chance

10273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

405

144

Will two of my friends break up by the end of the semester?

Jan 20, 9:45 AMJul 2, 11:59 PM

51%chance

3139

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

980

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

Dec 3, 4:22 PM

10

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