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Top stories

TSMC Investigates Theft of 2nm Chip Technology After Six Arrests, Tokyo Electron Employee Dismissed Amid Rapidus Link

TSMC Investigates Theft of 2nm Chip Technology After Six Arrests, Tokyo Electron Employee Dismissed Amid Rapidus Link

Authors

21

13 days ago

Prediction markets for Taiwan

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.57%chance

878488584

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16378

11200

Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.92%chance

493142482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3292

2059

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2025?

Jan 14, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5%chance

109130768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4359

229

If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?

Nov 12, 2:34 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

55.22%chance

26886091

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2442

1290

Will Taiwan de facto be controlled by China before 2026 according to Western media?

Jan 28, 6:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.76%chance

2440407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

36783

7377

China blockades Taiwan in 2025? (media reports)

Jan 14, 7:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.09%chance

5631829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22383

7194

If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?

Aug 3, 3:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

47.82%chance

12711951

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2041

1476

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

44.56%chance

477663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

957

Will China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Nov 8, 8:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.01%chance

515685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1362

734

Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.02%chance

384335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2224

1817

Will China invade any territory of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41%chance

242790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

834

Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan

Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.12%chance

21376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

789

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