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Prediction markets for Taiwan
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
28.06%chance
1047632621
OptionVotes
16041
15185
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
9.26%chance
598190059
OptionVotes
10810
4398
OptionVotes
2853
1015
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
Dec 10, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
4.49%chance
14227715
OptionVotes
27193
9686
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?
Mar 3, 3:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
2.33%chance
8617343
OptionVotes
1462
95
Will the US attack Cuba before China attacks Taiwan?
Jan 31, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
72.18%chance
5115153
OptionVotes
16107
6208
If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
Aug 3, 3:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
45.92%chance
13514996
OptionVotes
2111
1414
Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
23.72%chance
5312716
OptionVotes
3385
1289
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
17.61%chance
5310397
OptionVotes
1134
941
If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]
Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM
55%chance
488666
OptionVotes
1225
754
If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030
Apr 9, 8:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
44.69%chance
976705
OptionVotes
2926
1021
Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan
Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32%chance
24591
OptionVotes
1065
819