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By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

75%chance

18253982

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2063

1170

By which Flight of Starship will it reach orbit?

Mar 22, 5:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6533871

OptionProbability

15

14

13

4 (all flight #s are on or before)

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

79

62

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.88%chance

4411762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1497

669

Which countries will President Trump say are taking advantage of the USA?

Mar 8, 2:51 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

398334

OptionProbability

Israel

Ireland

India

Mexico

China

Denmark

Australia

Japan

Panama

Ukraine

Haiti

Germany

Poland

France

Russia

USA

New Zealand

South Sudan

Canada

Lesotho

99

50

50

39

37

35

32

27

27

26

23

16

13

12

11

9

7

2

1

1

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

Will Nectome have a legally separate nonprofit dedicated to storing patients by the end of the year?

Mar 18, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.05%chance

121605

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1529

654

Will Nestlé publicly apologize for its role in past human rights abuses by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.74%chance

8545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1401

714

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?

Jun 3, 8:03 PMSep 30, 10:59 PM

10.45%chance

4231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

293

34

Will desktop Anki and/or AnkiDroid have paid features by Jan 1, 2027?

Feb 3, 11:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.63%chance

8225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

68

Will desktop Anki and/or AnkiDroid have paid features by Jan 1, 2028?

Feb 3, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.73%chance

9178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

Will any other countries still be ripping off the USA in 2028? (according to DJT)

Mar 8, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

78.81%chance

5147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

193

52

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