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Prediction markets for Talk Markets

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.67%chance

480696936

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16706

12559

When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)

May 3, 10:57 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

95129634

OptionProbability

Jan - Jun 2026

Other

Jul - Dec 2026

Jan - Jun 2025

Jul - Dec 2025

Jan - Jun 2024

Jul - Dec 2024

44

40

15

1

1

0

0

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

75%chance

13533864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10400

7578

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

27%chance

3522889

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1644

608

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.23%chance

4010368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17681

5656

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?

Dec 14, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.33%chance

518946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1269

789

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

28.2%chance

806768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2947

686

Will I regret switching to public high school? [Decide My Life Ep. 1]

Jan 24, 3:26 PMDec 31, 3:10 PM

13.15%chance

426493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3074

888

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

78.44%chance

245740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1907

524

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.9%chance

194054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4453

1165

Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2150?

Sep 4, 7:26 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.32%chance

323000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

976

Will there be evidence of at least 5000 mixed Chinese-Africans born in Africa through 2030?

Sep 28, 8:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.49%chance

17551

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1138

919

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