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Prediction markets for Talk Markets

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

501720246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16300

14168

When will the 2023 Israel Hamas war end? (Longer)

May 3, 10:57 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

103159542

OptionProbability

Other

Jan - Jun 2027

Jul - Dec 2026

Jan - Jun 2026

Jan - Jun 2025

Jul - Dec 2025

Jan - Jun 2024

Jul - Dec 2024

51

28

17

2

1

1

0

0

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

75%chance

14234343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10400

7578

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76.69%chance

11228631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1816

552

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

Sep 29, 5:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.5%chance

4312501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17554

5697

Will Trump give himself the Medal of Honor while in office?

Feb 27, 10:48 PMJan 21, 12:00 PM

7.53%chance

409617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3505

285

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

20.49%chance

817268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3447

526

Will the US obtain the Iranian uranium?

Apr 1, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:14 PM

14.51%chance

547015

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3402

401

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

77.79%chance

255750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1872

534

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.72%chance

205734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4744

1120

Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2150?

Sep 4, 7:26 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.32%chance

323000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

976

Will there be evidence of at least 5000 mixed Chinese-Africans born in Africa through 2030?

Sep 28, 8:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.49%chance

17551

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1138

919

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