TAR News

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

Apr 21, 4:34 AMDec 31, 6:00 PM

5.91%chance

5592910

OptionVotes

YES

2723

789

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

Nov 9, 9:23 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

9933000

OptionProbability

Any American receives it by end 2025

Any American receives it by end 2026

Limit set at or below 99th percentile wealth or income

≥$200

Limit set at or below 90th percentile wealth or income

A physical check (at least optionally)

Multiple disparate "tariff dividends" (different sources or destinations)

Only given out to military

All for same amount

≥$2000

Blocked by a federal judge

Limit set at or below 70th percentile wealth or income

Significant number sent to non-citizens and/or non-existent people

Passed by Congress

$ value explicitly tied to performance of tariffs

~50% or more of Americans receive it by end 2026

Some checks bounce

A tax credit (exclusively)

100

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

17.84%chance

4810173

OptionVotes

YES

1609

816

Will there be a nuclear strike on a civilian or military target by 2030?

Nov 20, 1:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.01%chance

322810

OptionVotes

YES

1564

639

Will tariff refunds be given out to a majority who paid them?

Feb 20, 11:48 PMJan 20, 11:47 PM

42.37%chance

252335

OptionVotes

YES

1166

857

Will a NATO aircraft shoot down a missile or drone fired towards a target in Ukraine before 2027?

Apr 15, 7:34 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

37.56%chance

231333

OptionVotes

YES

1310

735

A tarrif is placed on Canadian streamers before 2029

May 24, 4:57 PMMay 25, 4:55 PM

30.13%chance

7523

OptionVotes

YES

1523

657

Does RL harm off-target capabilities? Is that temporary?

Dec 4, 12:08 PMDec 5, 12:04 PM

49.37%chance

9369

OptionVotes

YES

1013

988

Will someone I know be targeted by a generative AI based scam by EoY 2026?

Feb 23, 6:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.65%chance

15361

OptionVotes

YES

998

986

Will we get tarrifs on Chinese microtransaction in Trump's America?

Nov 16, 11:26 AMNov 24, 5:59 AM

43.84%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

1132

884

Which POV character will have the fewest chapters in "The Winds of Winter" (excl. Prologue/Epilogue/characters with 0)?

Aug 24, 4:38 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

475

OptionProbability

Areo Hotah

Other

Samwell Tarly

Aeron Greyjoy

Victarion Greyjoy

Melisandre

Bran Stark

Barristan Selmy

Which target will Tianwen-6 mission focus on?

Jul 10, 6:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

OptionProbability

Mercury

Venus

Mars

An asteroid

Jupiter

Saturn

Uranus

Neptune

A dwarf planet

A comet

Other

TAR News

Prediction markets for TAR

Prediction markets for TAR

Prediction markets for TAR

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Will there be a nuclear strike on a civilian or military target by 2030?

Will tariff refunds be given out to a majority who paid them?

Will a NATO aircraft shoot down a missile or drone fired towards a target in Ukraine before 2027?

A tarrif is placed on Canadian streamers before 2029

Does RL harm off-target capabilities? Is that temporary?

Will someone I know be targeted by a generative AI based scam by EoY 2026?

Will we get tarrifs on Chinese microtransaction in Trump's America?

Which POV character will have the fewest chapters in "The Winds of Winter" (excl. Prologue/Epilogue/characters with 0)?

Which target will Tianwen-6 mission focus on?

Latest stories