TAR News

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

Apr 21, 4:34 AMDec 31, 6:00 PM

5%chance

5893335

OptionVotes

YES

3148

765

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

Nov 9, 9:23 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

10337346

OptionProbability

Any American receives it by end 2025

Any American receives it by end 2026

Limit set at or below 99th percentile wealth or income

≥$200

A physical check (at least optionally)

Multiple disparate "tariff dividends" (different sources or destinations)

Limit set at or below 90th percentile wealth or income

Only given out to military

All for same amount

≥$2000

Blocked by a federal judge

Limit set at or below 70th percentile wealth or income

Significant number sent to non-citizens and/or non-existent people

$ value explicitly tied to performance of tariffs

Passed by Congress

Some checks bounce

~50% or more of Americans receive it by end 2026

A tax credit (exclusively)

100

Will at least three more U.S. states impose special electricity tariffs on data centers before Jan 1, 2028?

Feb 12, 5:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97%chance

71844

OptionVotes

YES

2644

Is Tyrion Lannister a Targaryen?

Apr 19, 3:11 AMJan 2, 4:09 AM

22.86%chance

141402

OptionVotes

YES

1837

544

Will someone I know be targeted by a generative AI based scam by EoY 2026?

Feb 23, 6:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.73%chance

17586

OptionVotes

YES

1196

648

Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026?

Jul 31, 10:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.08%chance

13561

OptionVotes

YES

1150

870

A tarrif is placed on Canadian streamers before 2029

May 24, 4:57 PMMay 25, 4:55 PM

30.13%chance

7523

OptionVotes

YES

1523

657

Does RL harm off-target capabilities? Is that temporary?

Dec 4, 12:08 PMDec 5, 12:04 PM

48.57%chance

10393

OptionVotes

YES

1029

972

Will we get tarrifs on Chinese microtransaction in Trump's America?

Nov 16, 11:26 AMNov 24, 5:59 AM

43.84%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

1132

884

Which POV character will have the fewest chapters in "The Winds of Winter" (excl. Prologue/Epilogue/characters with 0)?

Aug 24, 4:38 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

475

OptionProbability

Areo Hotah

Other

Samwell Tarly

Aeron Greyjoy

Victarion Greyjoy

Melisandre

Bran Stark

Barristan Selmy

Will Trump's tariffs using Section 338 hold

Jul 21, 10:03 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

21.66%chance

319

OptionVotes

YES

102

Which target will Tianwen-6 mission focus on?

Jul 10, 6:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

OptionProbability

Mercury

Venus

Mars

An asteroid

Jupiter

Saturn

Uranus

Neptune

A dwarf planet

A comet

Other

TAR News

Prediction markets for TAR

Prediction markets for TAR

Prediction markets for TAR

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

Will at least three more U.S. states impose special electricity tariffs on data centers before Jan 1, 2028?

Is Tyrion Lannister a Targaryen?

Will someone I know be targeted by a generative AI based scam by EoY 2026?

Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026?

A tarrif is placed on Canadian streamers before 2029

Does RL harm off-target capabilities? Is that temporary?

Will we get tarrifs on Chinese microtransaction in Trump's America?

Which POV character will have the fewest chapters in "The Winds of Winter" (excl. Prologue/Epilogue/characters with 0)?

Will Trump's tariffs using Section 338 hold

Which target will Tianwen-6 mission focus on?

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