TAR News

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

Apr 21, 4:34 AMDec 31, 6:00 PM

5%chance

5793334

OptionVotes

YES

3147

765

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

Nov 9, 9:23 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

10236664

OptionProbability

Any American receives it by end 2025

Any American receives it by end 2026

Limit set at or below 99th percentile wealth or income

≥$200

A physical check (at least optionally)

Multiple disparate "tariff dividends" (different sources or destinations)

Limit set at or below 90th percentile wealth or income

Only given out to military

All for same amount

≥$2000

Blocked by a federal judge

Limit set at or below 70th percentile wealth or income

Significant number sent to non-citizens and/or non-existent people

$ value explicitly tied to performance of tariffs

Passed by Congress

Some checks bounce

~50% or more of Americans receive it by end 2026

A tax credit (exclusively)

100

Is Tyrion Lannister a Targaryen?

Apr 19, 3:11 AMJan 2, 4:09 AM

22.86%chance

141402

OptionVotes

YES

1837

544

Will Democrats win any senate seat this is not a current main target?

Sep 6, 8:48 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

34.54%chance

9844

OptionVotes

YES

1013

993

Will someone I know be targeted by a generative AI based scam by EoY 2026?

Feb 23, 6:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.09%chance

16481

OptionVotes

YES

1091

802

Will Canada raise its 2027 international-student arrivals target above 150,000 by December 31, 2026?

Apr 21, 4:29 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

33.81%chance

2475

OptionVotes

YES

1399

715

Does RL harm off-target capabilities? Is that temporary?

Dec 4, 12:08 PMDec 5, 12:04 PM

49.55%chance

9373

OptionVotes

YES

1009

991

Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026?

Jul 31, 10:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.27%chance

12311

OptionVotes

YES

1112

900

Will we get tarrifs on Chinese microtransaction in Trump's America?

Nov 16, 11:26 AMNov 24, 5:59 AM

43.84%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

1132

884

Which POV character will have the fewest chapters in "The Winds of Winter" (excl. Prologue/Epilogue/characters with 0)?

Aug 24, 4:38 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

475

OptionProbability

Areo Hotah

Other

Samwell Tarly

Aeron Greyjoy

Victarion Greyjoy

Melisandre

Bran Stark

Barristan Selmy

Will Trump's tariffs using Section 338 hold

Jul 21, 10:03 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

21.66%chance

319

OptionVotes

YES

102

Which target will Tianwen-6 mission focus on?

Jul 10, 6:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

OptionProbability

Mercury

Venus

Mars

An asteroid

Jupiter

Saturn

Uranus

Neptune

A dwarf planet

A comet

Other

TAR News

Prediction markets for TAR

Prediction markets for TAR

Prediction markets for TAR

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

Is Tyrion Lannister a Targaryen?

Will Democrats win any senate seat this is not a current main target?

Will someone I know be targeted by a generative AI based scam by EoY 2026?

Will Canada raise its 2027 international-student arrivals target above 150,000 by December 31, 2026?

Does RL harm off-target capabilities? Is that temporary?

Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026?

Will we get tarrifs on Chinese microtransaction in Trump's America?

Which POV character will have the fewest chapters in "The Winds of Winter" (excl. Prologue/Epilogue/characters with 0)?

Will Trump's tariffs using Section 338 hold

Which target will Tianwen-6 mission focus on?

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