Tari News

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

Nov 9, 9:23 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

10134777

OptionProbability

Any American receives it by end 2025

Any American receives it by end 2026

Limit set at or below 99th percentile wealth or income

≥$200

A physical check (at least optionally)

Multiple disparate "tariff dividends" (different sources or destinations)

Limit set at or below 90th percentile wealth or income

Only given out to military

All for same amount

≥$2000

Blocked by a federal judge

Limit set at or below 70th percentile wealth or income

Significant number sent to non-citizens and/or non-existent people

$ value explicitly tied to performance of tariffs

Passed by Congress

~50% or more of Americans receive it by end 2026

Some checks bounce

A tax credit (exclusively)

100

Will Trump substantially replace income taxes with tariffs?

Jun 14, 2:54 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

1.37%chance

2013318

OptionVotes

YES

8688

120

Will tariff refunds be given out to a majority who paid them?

Feb 20, 11:48 PMJan 20, 11:47 PM

72.03%chance

293110

OptionVotes

YES

1605

623

Will the EU impose punitive tariffs on Chinese electric cars before 2030?

Sep 13, 9:37 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

92.84%chance

322779

OptionVotes

YES

2894

680

ChatGPT's tariff formula the first ASI attack?

Apr 6, 10:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.24%chance

131140

OptionVotes

YES

547

Will Trump abolish income tax and replace it with revenue from tariffs?

Nov 3, 3:47 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

2.13%chance

15871

OptionVotes

YES

677

Trump gives people cash from tariffs in 2026?

Nov 20, 7:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.6%chance

16684

OptionVotes

YES

276

Will at least three more U.S. states impose special electricity tariffs on data centers before Jan 1, 2028?

Feb 12, 5:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.26%chance

6273

OptionVotes

YES

1073

753

Which issues will Donald Trump propose or imply can be solved with tariffs?

Jan 25, 11:29 PMFeb 2, 10:59 PM

8251

OptionProbability

Immigration

Unemployment

High taxes

Budget deficit

US leadership in AI

Livings costs

Crime

Inflation

Housing costs

Healthcare

Gaza conflict

Ukraine conflict

100

Will Trump raise tariffs on any G7 country to more than 50%?

Feb 7, 4:25 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

25.81%chance

798

OptionVotes

YES

170

Will the US impose 50% secondary tariffs on any Iran weapons supplier by July 31, 2026?

May 5, 6:40 PMJul 31, 10:00 PM

74.55%chance

582

OptionVotes

YES

178

Tarique Rahman out as Bangladesh’s Prime minister before 2027?

Feb 19, 7:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.85%chance

OptionVotes

YES

101

100

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Prediction markets for Tari

Prediction markets for Tari

Prediction markets for Tari

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

Will Trump substantially replace income taxes with tariffs?

Will tariff refunds be given out to a majority who paid them?

Will the EU impose punitive tariffs on Chinese electric cars before 2030?

ChatGPT's tariff formula the first ASI attack?

Will Trump abolish income tax and replace it with revenue from tariffs?

Trump gives people cash from tariffs in 2026?

Will at least three more U.S. states impose special electricity tariffs on data centers before Jan 1, 2028?

Which issues will Donald Trump propose or imply can be solved with tariffs?

Will Trump raise tariffs on any G7 country to more than 50%?

Will the US impose 50% secondary tariffs on any Iran weapons supplier by July 31, 2026?

Tarique Rahman out as Bangladesh’s Prime minister before 2027?

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