Task Analysis News
Prediction markets for Task Analysis
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
29.63%chance
793419120
OptionVotes
25141
17457
2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
82.06%chance
372697
OptionVotes
1928
630
What nootropics or other cognitive enhancements will I see a significant positive effect from if I take them?
Jan 17, 11:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
251327
OptionProbability
77
70
64
61
59
50
48
46
46
45
42
42
41
29
28
24
Will an AI system show emergent capabilities in psychotherapy before 2028 ?
Nov 30, 1:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
65.41%chance
18516
OptionVotes
1293
801
OptionProbability
23
17
14
7
7
7
5
5
5
4
4
4
Will an AI be capable of substituting for a high-quality criminal defense lawyer before 2030?
Mar 20, 1:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
20.89%chance
10240
OptionVotes
240
162
Will any AI model score above 95% on GRAB by the end of 2025?
Mar 31, 8:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
40.49%chance
9186
OptionVotes
646
509
Will OpenAI provide API access to o5-mini within 30 days of releasing GPT-5?
Jul 27, 12:46 AMJan 1, 1:46 AM
16.85%chance
6171
OptionVotes
222
45
Kramer Intelligence overtakes Apple Intelligence by the end of 2026?
Jul 4, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.65%chance
6163
OptionVotes
263
38
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PutnamBench leaderboard?
Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
1150