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Prediction markets for Tasks

Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?

Jun 2, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.32%chance

9940827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7165

440

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

Dec 4, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2336318

OptionProbability

1.0-1.2

1.2-1.4

0.8-1.0

<0.8

1.4-1.6

>=1.6

33

19

17

15

10

6

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

79%chance

8523081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1940

516

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.02%chance

11121965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3565

1458

1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.

Mar 8, 4:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

413738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

629

Will a Google model lead METR's task duration chart by EOY?

Sep 4, 9:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.17%chance

242274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1358

736

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.62%chance

362030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

784

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

37.55%chance

6425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

775

AutoGPT style agents will prove in the longer run the proper way to get automation of medium complexity tasks.

Apr 29, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.75%chance

10389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

907

Does RL training with verifiers help on tasks without a verifier?

Dec 4, 11:56 AMDec 5, 11:49 AM

53.34%chance

4260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

935

Will Russia be added to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist before 2050?

Oct 16, 11:20 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

50.88%chance

6195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

983

Will "Notes on the Long Tasks METR paper, from a HC..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 22, 4:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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