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Prediction markets for Tasks

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

69.99%chance

8526818

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1527

655

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.02%chance

11121965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3565

1458

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

Dec 18, 8:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

89.52%chance

10610059

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2721

642

1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.

Mar 8, 4:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

413738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

629

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.62%chance

362030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

784

Will websites give up on bot detection using captcha-like tasks by 2028?

Mar 14, 11:17 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.53%chance

461894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1185

790

AI models will be able to complete 20-hour software engineering tasks in 2026

Jan 2, 7:39 AMJan 5, 7:59 AM

55.49%chance

5589

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1116

896

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

36.71%chance

8451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

762

Does RL training with verifiers help on tasks without a verifier?

Dec 4, 11:56 AMDec 5, 11:49 AM

48.51%chance

9389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

971

Will "Negative Results for SAEs On Downstream Tasks..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 8:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

38.8%chance

3212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1210

311

Will Russia be added to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist before 2050?

Oct 16, 11:20 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

50.88%chance

6195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

983

Will "Notes on the Long Tasks METR paper, from a HC..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 22, 4:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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