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Prediction markets for Tasks

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

74%chance

8728182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1687

593

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

9.7%chance

11122065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3665

1447

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

Dec 18, 8:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.19%chance

10910199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2088

732

1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.

Mar 8, 4:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.87%chance

423741

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

632

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

884

Will websites give up on bot detection using captcha-like tasks by 2028?

Mar 14, 11:17 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.53%chance

461894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1185

790

Will at least 25% of US retail investors report using an AI agent for an investment-related task by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.09%chance

4790

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1691

591

AI models will be able to complete 20-hour software engineering tasks in 2026

Jan 2, 7:39 AMJan 5, 7:59 AM

61.6%chance

10775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

790

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

36.71%chance

8451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

762

Does RL training with verifiers help on tasks without a verifier?

Dec 4, 11:56 AMDec 5, 11:49 AM

50.96%chance

10444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

981

Will "Negative Results for SAEs On Downstream Tasks..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 8:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

38.8%chance

3212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1210

311

Will Russia be added to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist before 2050?

Oct 16, 11:20 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

50.88%chance

6195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

983

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