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Prediction markets for Tax Day

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.94%chance

321986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

610

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

What will the US national debt be after the Trump administration?

Mar 5, 8:50 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

101181

OptionProbability

40 - 49.9

50 - 59.9

30 - 39.9

Below 20

20 - 29.9

Above 60

85

8

3

1

1

1

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

Will Wyoming's 2026 property tax initiative pass?

Mar 9, 1:17 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

34.1%chance

4405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1390

719

Will the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?

May 8, 3:47 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

13%chance

9380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

39

Will the LDS Church (Mormons) lose it's tax exempt status in the US before the end of 2050?

Jan 26, 12:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.11%chance

10302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

179

UK Autumn Budget 2026: will any working-age benefit be cut or uprated below CPI?

Sep 22, 2:32 PMOct 28, 12:00 PM

40.5%chance

124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

45

UK Autumn Budget 2026: will a £2 bus fare cap be funded beyond the end of 2027?

Sep 22, 2:32 PMOct 28, 12:00 PM

40%chance

121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

59

UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the CGT uplift on death be abolished or restricted?

Sep 22, 2:32 PMOct 28, 12:00 PM

20.24%chance

19

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

58

UK Autumn Budget 2026: will it freeze fuel duty or cancel a scheduled rise?

Sep 22, 2:32 PMOct 28, 12:00 PM

65%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the 'mansion tax' threshold be set below £2 million?

Sep 22, 2:32 PMOct 28, 12:00 PM

35%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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