Tax Day News

Will the United States have more than 2,500,000 households without power before the end of 2025?

Jan 20, 4:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.51%chance

2412138

OptionVotes

YES

328

Will the United States have more than 1,000,000 households without power before the end of 2025 (starting April 30th)?

Apr 30, 12:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.89%chance

2010031

OptionVotes

YES

2391

418

Will the LDS Church (Mormons) lose it's tax exempt status in the US before the end of 2025?

Dec 30, 12:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.05%chance

299965

OptionVotes

YES

8248

738

Will any U.S. State have more than 2,000,000 customers without power in 2025?

Jan 10, 1:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.15%chance

163491

OptionVotes

YES

205

Will any U.S. State have more than 1,000,000 customers without power in 2025 again (after mid Jan power outages)?

Jan 13, 8:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.36%chance

142896

OptionVotes

YES

255

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

YES

1629

626

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

1809

1260

What will the US national debt be after the Trump administration?

Mar 5, 8:50 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

10997

OptionProbability

40 - 49.9

50 - 59.9

30 - 39.9

Below 20

20 - 29.9

Above 60

Will the LDS Church (Mormons) lose it's tax exempt status in the US before the end of 2050?

Jan 26, 12:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.11%chance

10302

OptionVotes

YES

198

179

What will be the result of the US Supreme Court in Learning Resources v. Trump?

Nov 21, 11:19 PMJun 30, 10:12 PM

4298

OptionProbability

Court Rules Tariffs under IEEPA are unconstitutional (strikes down), AND allows at least SOME repayments for companies who have paid tariffs under the IEEPA justification

Court somehow fudges, or refuses to finalise clear opinion

Court Rules Tariffs under IEEPA are unconstitutional (strikes down), but blocks repayments for companies who have paid tariffs under the IEEPA justification.

Court rules that tariffs are constitutional (because Congress didn’t exercise objection right to state of emergency…or other reason).

Other

Will New Jersey withhold federal tax dollars in protest of the Trump administration before 2028?

Nov 23, 2:28 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.24%chance

5196

OptionVotes

YES

296

Days until tariffs roll back to less than 10% after the tax cut passes?

Apr 8, 11:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3110

OptionProbability

Above 90

0 - 14

15 - 29

30 - 44

45 - 59

60 - 74

75 - 90

Tax Day News

Prediction markets for Tax Day

Prediction markets for Tax Day

Prediction markets for Tax Day

Will the United States have more than 2,500,000 households without power before the end of 2025?

Will the United States have more than 1,000,000 households without power before the end of 2025 (starting April 30th)?

Will the LDS Church (Mormons) lose it's tax exempt status in the US before the end of 2025?

Will any U.S. State have more than 2,000,000 customers without power in 2025?

Will any U.S. State have more than 1,000,000 customers without power in 2025 again (after mid Jan power outages)?

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

What will the US national debt be after the Trump administration?

Will the LDS Church (Mormons) lose it's tax exempt status in the US before the end of 2050?

What will be the result of the US Supreme Court in Learning Resources v. Trump?

Will New Jersey withhold federal tax dollars in protest of the Trump administration before 2028?

Days until tariffs roll back to less than 10% after the tax cut passes?

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